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This excerpt is from the Quantative Precipitation Forecast Discussion. Also known as the QPF Forecast. (edited~danielw) QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 604 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY 2... WRN GULF COAST... VERY HIGH PWS/85H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES STRETCHING FROM TEXAS COAST INTO LA THIS PERIOD.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER...PER PMDHMD..WITH ITS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS/OZ ECMWF/12Z CMC/12Z ENSMEAN/9Z SREFMEAN IN FOCUSING HIGHEST AMNTS NEAR UPPER TEXAS COAST.THIS OCCURS WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT 85H JET OFF GULF OF MEXICO ON EASTERN SIDE OF INVERTED MID LVL TROF.SITUATION MAY CHANGE SOMEWHAT BASED ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF T.D. IN WRN GOM.GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MST FLUX AND DURATION OF EVENT...ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4" ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREA FROM MID TX COAST NORTH TO SW LA. Bold emphasis added to isolate the Area of concern for heavy rainfall~danielw Graphics and full text are available at the link below~danielw http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html Explanation of abbreviations and acronyms used above. |