this thing... i called it a no-go earlier, and that's still the most likely result. the u/a low that chopped chris up is the culprit, only this time the low is elongating and pulling westward ahead of a wave, enhancing it by divergence aloft. low level winds are really cranking and the ridge to the north is strong, so there's nothing for the convection to 'hang up' on, should just keep plowing westward and never develop any vertical structure.
last year, time and again.. this was the mechanism that created the hurricane blitzkrieg.
HF 2128z07august