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CMC GLOBAL TD4 Up and down intensities...144hr (6 day) forecast.Near 25N/ 55W Current Wave near 10N/ 40W. Begins an increase in intensity while south of Dominican Republic. (850mb 2 contours) Increasing to a 3rd 850mb contour just South of the Western tip of Cuba at 132hr (5.5 days,Sunday 12Z). Up to a 4th 850mb contour, at 144hrs ( 6.0 days-Sunday Night) just North of the Yucatan Channel (Cancun,MX), and after entering the Gulf of Mexico. 500mb vortice is present along the same forecast track. (Note:The CMC Global is the ONLY model forecasting this Wave to intensify at this time-00Z 22AUG06) ********************************************* GFDL TD4 Increasing intensity. Maximum of 87.9kts/ 101mph (981mb forecast minumum pressure). Near 29.5N/ 51.5W at 126hrs (06Z 27Aug06-Early Sunday Morning). (Note:This run of the GFDL is also forecasting occasional 35 to 64kt winds over the Central Lesser Antilles (from 06Z-23AUG06,to 00Z-24AUG06) and over Eastern Cuba, (from 00Z26AUG06 to 12Z26AUG06) (These are Forecast wind speeds from the 00Z 22AUG06 GFDL Model Run) ********************************************** GFS TD4 Consistant intensity on a Northwestward forecast track. To a forecast position of 30N/ 50W at 144hrs (6 days-Sunday Night) No other features in the Atlantic Basin on this model run. ********************************************* UKMET TD4 Maintains intensity through 96 hours (12Z Friday Morning). At 144hrs (6 days), centered near 25N/ 55W, as an 850mb, 1 contour vortice. |