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The models are still "iffy" so to speak but some are persistent in some sort of development, the CMC won't give it up. It has caught the attention of local Mets and has been in the past few discussions from the WFO in Tallahassee. Here is a part of this mornings AFD... MOST OF THE MID RANGE MODELS INSIST ON BRINING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEWD OUT OF THE TROPICS. MOST DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA BY WED OR WED NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS BRINGS A LOW CENTER INTO THE SERN GULF BY FRI MORNING AND THEN TRACKS IT SLOWLY NEWD TO THE W CENTRAL COAST OF FL BY 12Z SUN. ANY LOW THAT DOES COME UP WILL LIKELY BE A HYBRID. IN FACT EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH SEEMS EVEN MORE LIKELY. THE GFS LOW IS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR S TO MAKE IT A PERIPHERAL CONCERN FOR US AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN TRYING TO SPIN UP LOWS IN THE TROPICS FOR SOME TIME NOW, AND IT HAS YET TO HAPPEN. THE CAVEAT IS THAT THE UKMET, EURO AND CANADIAN HAVE BEEN DOING THIS RECENTLY AS WELL. |