(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 05 2008 11:38 PM
Re: 99l

Kpost~ Your right about 99L seemingly not wanting to die, but I just would have a hard time believing that it will continue to slide westward. Reason being that as you described how it tends to come back and flare up, I have to believe that there remains some distinct vorticity associated with what appears to be a leading edge of an overall large high amplitude easterly surge. If this were simply a shallow surface feature, than I would agree that it would tend to follow the overall shallow layer flow, which would tend to be west to WNW'ward. There very fact that this feature seems to keep reminding us that it was a classified system, would make me believe that there remains some 500mb-850mb vorticity, which if given a chance to develop, this deepening phase would seemingly tend to have this feature now more caught in the overall deep layer flow. For the immediate, I was under the impression that we were having some troughiness off the U.S. Eastern seaboard, which if the case, would tend to have any deep level feature start to turn more poleward as it approached.

If long long range GFS 500mb patterns prove to come to pass, than we'll have something to talk about, given something approaching from the east. Long range steering flow seemed to indicate rock solid ridging, with a reinforcing ridge off the S.E. U.S. coastline. That kind of pattern in an active mid Atlantic season might make Florida Chambers of Commerce start to worry some. For the immediate future, I do not believe that type of ridging exists to the east of Florida

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