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There have been models and discussions about possible development off the east coast next week. Here is the Wilmington NC take on it: AN INTERESTING ASPECT TO CONSIDER WITH THIS SCENARIO IS HOW MANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL LOW COULD PICK UP WHILE OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE HPC EXTENDED DISCUSSION GIVES MORE DETAILS ABOUT POSSIBLE IMPACTS SHOULD AN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OCCUR. MORE MUNDANE TO CONSIDER...BUT SITUATIONS SUCH AS THESE OFTEN WRAP CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN FROM THE NORTH WHICH LIMITS THE WEST AND NORTHWESTWARD PENETRATION OF RAIN. THE UPPER LOW INLAND MAY MITIGATE THIS SOME...BUT MANY POSSIBILITIES REMAIN OPEN. SINCE THIS IS STILL A 6 AND 7 DAY FORECAST WE HAVE ONLY RAISED POPS 10-20% ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL DETAILS CAN GET HAMMERED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. Here's the actual HPC discussion" ...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS PROVIDE IMPUT FROM 06Z GFS/DGEX AND ECMWF ENS MEAN..CHANGES MADE ARE TO GO COMPLETELY WITH ECMWF BUT WITH MODIFICATIONS TO ITS SFC PRESSURE FIELDS ACROSS THE EAST COAST DAYS 6 AND 7 MORE TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF OP MODELS TOWARDS MORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SUBTROPICAL LOW/HYBRID TYPE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INCREASING THE WIND FIELDS TO FULL GALE OR STORM CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. DGEX AND CMC INDICATE FULL BLOWN TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WHILE EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OF THE SOLUTIONS DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE AS DO THE ENS MEANS. BELIEVE IT PRUDENT TO START LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE SIGNIFCANT THREAT. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A WESTERLY PHASE MJO AND FAVORABLE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES AT H250 AND H850 COVERING AN AREA INCLUDING THE TROPICAL EPAC/GULFMEX/CARRIBBEAN AND OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH ATLC SEABOARD/BAHAMAS. |