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Today's HPC discussion on possible EC storm next week...maybe more of a northeaster than a tropical system: THE ATLC COASTAL SIGNAL HAS BEEN SEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW PLACING A 1035-1040 MB HIGH IN A POSITION TO PROVIDE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WEST ATLC AND ALONG THE COAST ALONE. ALL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE INDICATED SOME CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY EVEN A SUBTROPICAL LOW. GFS SERIES HAS BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE CANADIAN AND DGEX HAVE BEEN MORE TO THE LEFT. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD ECMWF/UKMET AND LATEST DGEX OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE GA COAST MOVING NWD TO ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING BRISK/STRONG ONSHORE WINDS TO THE MID ATLC SOUTHEAST COAST TUES INTO FRIDAY AND NWD UP THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND. THREAT OF GALE TO STORM FORCE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WINDS/PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH TIDES WITH ENHANCEMENT BY NEW MOON PHASE/COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION/AND HEAVY COASTAL RAINS. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE FORECAST. |