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It was a nice looking wave, the convection has died down drastically overnight, but I would think it would have a chance at that flaring back up during the day today. There was quite a large area of dry air that invaded the wave from the north and caused the convection to die. Regardless of convection though, as noted by the NHC during this morning's Tropical Weather Discussion, everything else is in place for it to stay a tropical wave for a while: TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N21W TO 3N23W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-22W. If it can stay below the SAL, it is in relatively light shear (10 knots) currently, and would have a good chance at staying organized for a while. There is some much stronger shear ahead of it, but not sure what will be present when it gets to that point. |