(Weather Analyst)
Thu Jul 01 2010 02:24 AM
Re: Area of Interest - NE GOM

That is correct. For the past 24 hours and last three runs continues to indicate along a frontal boundary expected to reach the GOM in the next 24 hours will become stationary. Currently there is an upper low off the coast of FL; albeit weak. Models have the long wave trough cutting off and developing an upper low off the NC/VA coast . This upper level low is an extension of the long wave trough which continues to dig as it progresses slowly east in response to the upstream long wave trough crashing into the Pacific Coast amplying the downstream Mid-Continental upper ridge expected to be centered over the Midwest. Thee is some mention in various discussions about a tropical low off the Atlantic coast which given the location of the long wave trough off the Atlantic coast; not likely...whatever becomes reflected at the surface will begin as a cold core low. From it the longwave trough continues into the GOM parallel to the surface boundary. HPC discussion felt the GFS is the outlier and develops a upper low off the NC/VA coast in favor of it being the stronger system which it will be but I think after 3 runs it is time to pay attention to the E GOM in the next few days.

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