From the morning AFD NWS Slidell,LA.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAIRLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB FORMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS MODEL
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE
LOCATION HAS SHIFTED FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. THE 00Z RUN
TODAY SHOWS THE LOW FORMING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...THEN THE LOW DEEPENS AND
MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THE 06Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW A WEAKER LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHILE THE 00Z
CANADIAN GEM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH AS THE GFS BUT SLOWER. AM
FAVORING THE WEAKER NAM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS MEANS
THERE SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH DRY AIR PULLED SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND MAV GUIDANCE.
THERE WILL BE DRIER/HOTTER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CLOSE TO OUR
NORTHERN BORDER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A BUILDING MID LEVEL
HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID SOUTH AREA.