The pounding of the moderate to heavy rain on the roof of my office in Ft. Myers got me out of my work mode and into what's next and how close is it?
Our current situation here is a 30.00 in barometer with heavy rain. The radar presentation is: cells over the peninsula are moving to the NW, but a large mass of rain is falling southward off the panhandle. The satellite presentation is confirmation that the TUTT which had been retrograding from the Bahamas is now sharper and extends down over Cuba. A cyclonic presentation is accompanying the cloud presentation over that island.
My reading from as many sources as I can consult is that overall conditions would support development, and the ECMWF solution, which I understood was to allow development south of Cuba in about a week was the model of choice.
However, it would not take much surface lowering of pressure given the current physical presentation near the west coast of Florida to get something going, in my humble and very uneducated opinion.