I have been particularly watching the area of convection in the Central Caribbean.
Although the shear is somewhat strong in this region, it continues to produce plenty
of storms. I personally give this area a slightly greater chance of developing
than its neighbor to the east of it, which is only at 10%. Why I give it a better chance
than the area that the NHC has highlighted, is due to the Central Caribbean wave
being totally removed from the SAL. Also, from what I can tell, the shear is forecast
to weaken some in a day or two for this wave.

I think the area near the Lesser Antilles will have decent shot at development in about
2 or 3 days, though.