Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Wed Aug 18 2010 10:51 AM
Re: The Outgoing West African Double Header

The first wave drifted off to the west northwest and lost its convection, however the lower-level swirl is still evident near 20N 30W at 18/12Z. The second wave is in the process of leaving the west African coast at about 15N this morning and it already has started to lose some of its convection. Note that this wave was a bit stronger than the first - will be interesting to see if it survives the next 24 hours or so.

Basin conditions still have not reached their forecasted levels - and it was these expectations that prompted some of the early season high activity forecasts. Subsidence (sinking air) is still evident in the tropics - a sure sign of atmospheric stability under high pressure ridges. The expectation was for lower pressure in the development zones this summer, but it hasn't happened yet.

SST anomalies were anticipated to be high with steam-bath conditions in the tropical Atlantic, but in fact they remain a little more below average than they were a couple of months ago. At 15N, the current SST is about 27C and the area from 10N to 20N westward to 30W is running about 0.5C below normal.

The second wave leaving the coast still has some residual SAL to contend with. Its not just windshear and TUTT lows that are limiting development so far this season. The SAL itself has been uncommonly active this month.

Until now at least, these adverse conditions have lead to the demise of waves exiting the west African coast.

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center