(Weather Analyst)
Thu Aug 19 2010 03:57 AM
Tropical Weather Analysis - 19/06Z

Good morning! Before I get started it needs to be said in regards to the Tropical Wave near 10.5N and 27.0W there are no models that have the capability to accurately forecast Tropical systems beyond 5 days or 120 hours. We won't be able to put any level of faith in the models until we're beyond the next 5 days and compare the model data with current upper level data.

Tonight there several upper level lows and a strong TUTT that currently resides from 50.0N 46W to an upper level low near 30.0N 55.0W extending westward to another upper level low at 21.0N 87.0W near Yucatan have been semi-permanent for the better part of this season.
There is considerable shear between the upper low near 30.0N 55.0W and the Azore upper ridge to its east.

Further west; the Gulf of Mexico is closed for business as shear across the entire area is near 30 knots extending ENE south of the upper ridge axis which extends from the Mid-Continental ridge over Texas to 34.0N 50.0W with a small closed upper high along the axis off the coast of DELMARVA..

There are few windows that support sustaining a tropical system in the here and now and the evolution of the TUTT across the Central Atlantic will be a key player in the evolution of this wave in the short and mid term.

That all said, we're paying attention to this well advertised tropical wave!

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