cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L

Quote:

am really starting to worry about the potential of a major hurricane in the central Caribbean in just a few days



I'm right there with you on that. I would probably break down 91L's prospects roughly along these lines:

Top max sustained winds within 91L during the next 7 days (personal best guess odds):

Less than 39MPH: 5%
39 - 50 MPH: 10%
55 - 70 MPH: 25%
75 - 90 MPH: 15%
95 - 110 MPH: 25%
Over 110 MPH: 20%

Or put another way, 95% odds of becoming a named storm, 35% odds of then maxing out as a TS, 60% odds of actually becoming a hurricane, and even 20% odds of becoming a major hurricane, within the next 7 days.


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