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GFS blows this up quite a bit late in the forecast period and places it south of Haiti. What is scary is the weakness in the ridge over the SE US at that time. ECMWF has a system in the west central Carribean. The satelite presentation says tropical storm now. The aircraft will give accurate data so the models can begin to grab it, and we should see a clearer picture tonight. Something this big and potentially powerful is worth watching carefully. |