(Storm Tracker)
Sat May 21 2011 11:18 AM
Mid/Upper Level Hints for 2011 Atlantic Season

I thought that "The Tropics Today", might be a good forum for any thoughts on our present day - mid and upper level conditions over the Conus and Tropics, and how they might translate into early season tropical cyclone development and general motion. It would certainly be interesting if anyone has taken the time ( or would care too ) to compare last year at this time to "current day" features ( i.e. TUTT condtions, overall 200mb flow impacting shear, strength & positioning of N. Atlantic/ "Bermuda High", strength of westerlies, etc. ).

Am noticing the first of many long ( and I mean very long ) range GFS runs hinting of early season development in the S.W. Caribean. Both the 0Z and the 6Z runs starting at around 216 hours, are showing development of a closed system. Without taking a great deal of time to really start to analyze steering and upper level conditions for this early season system ( or model "ghost system" ), I did notice the lack of what I seemed to remember "last year", as a fairly persistant TUTT feature stretching from Puerto Rico and points northward.

Near term mid level models do certainly seem to indicate overall troughing into the deep south of the U.S. and fairly solid ridging in the northern Atlantic. The Atlantic season has yet to begin, and mid level and upper level conditions are constantly evolving, yet I seem to see nuances of conditions which would appear to bear out why various agencies ( both public or private ) are calling for potentially greater risk to the U.S. this season, as compared to the past couple of years. Would love to hear thoughts from anyone with "year to year" condition analysis.

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