LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 05 2012 04:44 PM
Re: Wave over Puerto Rico?

It's a large wave or what is referred to often as a "wave axis" meaning it's large, disorganized and oozes more than moves.... BUT..........it's really very "there" and noticeable and hard to ignore.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of model support, possibly why the NHC has not put up a "yellow circle" but it is there.

Also noticed today that the northern part of the wave seems to be moving towards an ULL to the North making me wonder if this convection is going to end up more in the Bahamas than to the South as previously thought.

Or...the north part goes north and the southern part slides into the Caribbean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif

NWS is able to monitor it on PR radar...from their forecast discussion:

.SYNOPSIS...THE TRAILING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE A SEVERE STORM FORMED AND MOVED
FROM PATILLAS NORTHWESTWARD TO VEGA BAJA. SOME REPORTS OF POWER
OUTAGES...DOWNED TREES AND STRONG WINDS WERE RECEIVED WITH THIS
SEVERE STORM. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI
RECEIVED MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD INTO HISPANOLA.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center