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It's a large wave or what is referred to often as a "wave axis" meaning it's large, disorganized and oozes more than moves.... BUT..........it's really very "there" and noticeable and hard to ignore. There doesn't seem to be a lot of model support, possibly why the NHC has not put up a "yellow circle" but it is there. Also noticed today that the northern part of the wave seems to be moving towards an ULL to the North making me wonder if this convection is going to end up more in the Bahamas than to the South as previously thought. Or...the north part goes north and the southern part slides into the Caribbean. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif NWS is able to monitor it on PR radar...from their forecast discussion: .SYNOPSIS...THE TRAILING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST MOVES OVER THE AREA. && .DISCUSSION...AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IN THE TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE A SEVERE STORM FORMED AND MOVED FROM PATILLAS NORTHWESTWARD TO VEGA BAJA. SOME REPORTS OF POWER OUTAGES...DOWNED TREES AND STRONG WINDS WERE RECEIVED WITH THIS SEVERE STORM. THE REST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND USVI RECEIVED MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD INTO HISPANOLA. |