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Not sure if I can post this here or not, but I'll give it a shot ;-) Was anyone expecting El Nino to occur in '06 ( hurricane season)?? Was this an unexpected event??? Is this something that cannot be predicted? Just curious..Always a ton of questions from me:-) Answers should probably be through PM so we don't clutter up the board:-) Thank you guys so much for all of your help as usual!!!! Christine (Post moved to a better location. The short answers are: yes (but only after the season was well underway), no and no, but see the 'El Nino' post in this Forum. Additional responses are okay here.) |
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I'm a bit at odds about where to place this. I will place it here and let ED decide if it needs to be moved. These are links to some of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecasts. http://www.benfieldgroup.com/NR/rdonlyre...castDec2007.pdf http://www.cdera.org/cunews/news_releases/bvi/article_1798.php http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/ http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2006/dec2006/ |
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This year a neutral to a moderate la nina will be in place come this hurricane season.Everything is pointing towards a busy season number wise but there is still alot of factors that will remain unknow for the next couple of months.It will depend on steering currents this year whether the U.S. see's tropical activity this season.Typically when capeverde systems develope in the far eastern atlantic they have very little chance of not getting kicked out to sea..The SAL will be another factor to moniter in the next 3-4 months as it really helped in surpressing activity in 2006. One thing to remember dont focus on numbers predicted cause even a slow season has the potential to be a deadly one.It really doesn't matter whether we have 40 systems develope in 2007 cause the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact. |
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I received this press release today from NOAA about la nina: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - February 27, 2007 *** NEWS FROM NOAA *** NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, DC LA NIÑA MAY SOON ARRIVE On the heels of El Niño, its opposite, La Niña may soon arrive. In a weekly update, scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that as the 2006-2007 El Niño faded, surface and subsurface ocean temperatures have rapidly decreased. Recently, cooler-than-normal water temperatures have developed at the surface in the east-central equatorial Pacific, indicating a possible transition to La Niña conditions. Typically, during the U.S. spring and summer months, La Niña conditions do not significantly impact overall inland temperature and precipitation patterns, however, La Niña episodes often do have an effect on Atlantic and Pacific hurricane activity. "Although other scientific factors affect the frequency of hurricanes, there tends to be a greater-than-normal number of Atlantic hurricanes and fewer-than-normal number of eastern Pacific hurricanes during La Niña events," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "During the winter, usual La Niña impacts include drier and warmer-than-average conditions over the southern United States. "NOAA's ability to detect and monitor the formation, duration and strength of El Niño and La Niña events is enhanced by continuous improvements in satellite and buoy observations in the equatorial Pacific," Lautenbacher added. "These observing systems include the TAO/TRITON moored and Argo drift buoys, as well as NOAA's polar orbiting satellites." La Niña conditions occur when ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific become cooler than normal. These changes affect tropical rainfall patterns and atmospheric winds over the Pacific Ocean, which influence the patterns of rainfall and temperatures in many areas worldwide. "La Niña events sometimes follow on the heels of El Niño conditions," said Dr. Vernon Kousky, research meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "It is a naturally occurring phenomenon that can last up to three years. La Niña episodes tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity during December-February, and then weaken during the following March-May." "The last lengthy La Niña event was 1998-2001, which contributed to serious drought conditions in many sections of the western U.S.," said Douglas Lecomte, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center drought specialist. NOAA will issue the U.S. Spring Outlook on March 15, and its Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook in May. Both outlooks will reflect the most current La Niña forecast. "While the status of El Niño/La Niña is of vital importance to our seasonal forecasts, it is but one measure we use when making actual temperature and precipitation forecasts," said Kousky. NOAA, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is celebrating 200 years of science and service to the nation. From the establishment of the Survey of the Coast in 1807 by Thomas Jefferson to the formation of the Weather Bureau and the Commission of Fish and Fisheries in the 1870s, much of America's scientific heritage is rooted in NOAA. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of the nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 60 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects. - 30 - On the Web: Weekly Updates & Diagnostic Discussions http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml Climate Prediction Center's ENSO Page http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml |
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What can we expect SSTs(Sea Surface Temperature's) to do in the coming months? NOAA's SST forecast for the peak months of hurricane season (August, September, and October) projects a continuation of the above-normal SSTs at about 0.5 ºC above normal. This is a lot of extra energy to fuel intense hurricanes, but not nearly as extreme as the 1-2 ºC above normal SSTs observed in 2005. While it is impossible to predict what the trade winds might do over the next few months, a sustained weakening of the trade winds for many months is an event that is unlikely. The next key question is--what will the steering pattern be for 2007? Will there be a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that recurves storms out to sea, as happened in 2006? Or, will a ridge of high pressure set up, steering hurricanes into the Caribbean, Florida, and U.S. Gulf coast, as happened in 2004 and 2005? A lot of uncertainties at this current time but we know one thing for sure, La Nina is back ... It will be an interesting season to say the least! (Post moved to a more appropriate Forum. Note that the questions that you ask would be difficult for even a seasoned meteorologist to answer with any degree of accuracy. Final pattern development is still a few months away.) |
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There are certain wintertime weather patterns across North America and the North Atlantic Ocean that have been shown to have some impact on tropical cyclone tracks and formation regions in the summer and fall months, but oftentimes these are based on seasonal activity (rather than specific weather patterns) and only account for about 20-30% of the variability in storm formation and movement at best. Unfortunately, the best answer is probably thus the one that Ed gave in his edit to your post -- it's pretty early to speculate on weather patterns and storm tracks this far out. That may not stop the media from looking at where the Bermuda High may set up in April and put out some articles saying the East coast is under the gun, but the articles don't really tell you anything but they aren't really correct. The East coast is always under the gun and the location of the Bermuda High in April has a very small impact on one storm's track in July-September. |