| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jun 18 2023 03:40 AM |
|
2023 Season Forecasts (Updated)
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Above: Screenshot of the 2023 Season Forecasts for Hurricanes (Cats 1-5) as of 6/17/23 by various agencies compiled and tracked by SeasonalHurricanePredictions.org, a team effort from Barcelona Supercomputing Center and Colorado State University , headed by Climate Scientist Dr. Louis-Philippe Caron; Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Senior Research Scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University; Dr. Marta Terrado, Science Communicator and co-leader of the Knowledge Integration team in the Earth System Services group at BSC and Dr. Ioana Dima-West, Senior Manager – Science / Climate Change, AXA XL.
The past few years, since perhaps 2017, seasonal forecasts have arguably become more challenging for even the most seasoned seasonal forecasters, and 2023 makes the past couple of years blush.
Due to the large spread of professional preseason forecasts this year along with the unique pairing of a vigorous El Niño and record-setting Atlantic SSTs, we are kicking off this post for us as a place to discuss the updates as they come out, as well as any evolution of our own season best guesses, including updates and addendums to those of us who participated in the contest (our preseason contest numbers won't be changed, but we can post here to share any of our own updates).
This will be a good place to discuss the reasons the season totals and landfalls may or may not be changing from earlier expectations, such as the aforementioned record-warm Atlantic SSTs and El Niño.