It wasn't particularly stronger in 2005, just shifted further to the west of where it was in 2004. Thus, we saw about two primary paths for storms this year, of course with some deviation here and there -- out to sea out by the Bahamas, or through the Gulf/Caribbean to the north-central or northwest Gulf coast.
As for the other question about how we fare vs. the NHC -- well, we don't really try to compete with them, so we don't put out forecast points or anything. We just try to stress the importance of preparation, discuss the storms, point out ideas that the NHC specialists don't always have the chance to do so themselves, and highlight areas where uncertainty exists in the forecasts. I've thought about trying to put out specific points, but it doesn't really accomplish anything other than foster confusion. You will see us mention our ideas on tracks and everything, with some success, but it's not really possible to compare how we do vs. the NHC (and vice versa).
|