Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jun 01 2006 04:35 PM
Re: Is the Georgia coast a dead zone for direct hurricane hits?

The Georgia coastline is in a unique position for tropical cyclone impacts. It is between two of the most climatologically favored locations for impacts, those being Florida and the Outer Banks, yet sees very few direct impacts itself. This is largely because of the steering patterns associated with mid-latitude troughs of low pressure and the semi-permanent subtropical ridge as well as the shape of the coastline. Generally speaking, a mid-latitude trough will capture a storm and recurve it sharply enough to miss Georgia -- and sometimes even the rest of the coastline -- or no such feature will capture the storm and it will continue across Florida. As storms recurve, they generally move parallel to the Georgia coastline, providing natural protection for those along the coast. However, it's not impossible to get a hit there; if the mid-latitude trough is in just the right place and of the right orientation (tilted from northwest to southeast) and there is a tropical feature there, you can see an impact. Something like David in 1979 is possible as well, just not quite as likely. Dora of 1964 is another such outlier; it took a track similar to Andrew in 1992, just about 5 degrees further north.

Simply put, it's possible -- but not likely -- to see a storm hit that region, mostly due to the coastline and natural trough/ridge patterns.



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