Let me add another caveat here: while this covers the years from 1970-2005, it does not fully explain what we have seen over the past 10 years. Even within the three ENSO phase composites, the numbers do increase for years over the past ten years. Thus, for a complete analysis, the trend and/or the averages need to be removed from the data before even compositing the seasons. This is to ensure that the statistics are valid between each of the composites and to hopefully ensure that the results have some physical merit.

So, ultimately, what this "study" shows you is perhaps a part of why we've seen so much activity -- though most of it would be expected anyway from what we know about ENSO cycles. How much of that is tied into the uptick in the past ten years remains up for debate, however. Truthfully, were it not for 1995, 2004, and 2005 -- three years out of 10 -- not a whole lot would seem out of place. Just my two cents, though.