Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Jun 25 2006 10:18 PM
Paint me confused

This probably belongs in the other thread you started, but I just wanted to note on your comment, "That's why I take issue with the papers coming out attributing 2005's season to SSTs and anthropogenic global warming, suggesting warmer waters in the tropical Atlantic (10-20N) led to the record number of storms." Actually, both sides claim that warmer SSTs are responsible, and that the warmer SSTs do cause a set of associated atmospheric conditions that contribute to hurricane activity. NOAA's hurricane forecast is very specific about this:

"The regional atmospheric circulation contributing to these long-period fluctuations in hurricane activity is strongly linked to the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal"

and they have a slide showing all of the associated atmospheric conditions that are generated by warm SSTs, in the same way that ENSO effects upper level winds over the ATL.

However, NOAA and William Gray say the warm SSTs are only due to the AMO (i.e, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, multi-decadal signal, multi-decadal oscillation, thermohaline circulation), and climate scientists say the warm SSTs are due mainly in part to AGW.

Also, from the AOML website, a clear definition of the AMO:

"The AMO is an ongoing series of long-duration changes in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic Ocean, with cool and warm phases that may last for 20-40 years at a time and a difference of about 1°F between extremes."

This is consistent with Kerr's definition (he coined the phrase, AMO).



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center