Mon Aug 14 2006 07:45 PM
Re: 92-94

That is always a pretty good rule to follow. For one thing, the models have attempted to develop something further to the NE. A bad initialization, can mean a bust to the model. The best at initializing this so far has been the UKMET. According to the 850mb Vorticity, it has seem the evolution that has occurred throughout the day. With that said, is the end game of that model correct? Maybe/probably not. Established tropical systems are much easier to follow in the models. The NHC looks at all themodels as a guide and a blend of what may occur...Once again, much easier to do with established systems. Likewise, I'd say that nobody should put too much weight into a particular model with formative stage systems.

To answer you question about fish spinner, even with the spread in the models, this and the overall picture of the atmosphere would say no. If it sits there long enough though...who knows if it will develop or be a formidable threat.

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