http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens_jsw/ens_jsw.html#us

Look around. Most are experimental products that are VERY good. The North American plots are pretty much non-experimental at this point, although they're still in that program.

Check out the difference between 12 hours and 120 hours in the Ensemble.

Also, here's why Ernesto has strengthened and will continue to do so. You can see how far the 40-50kt. shear has pulled back to the west away from the system.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-8.GIF

The shear will disappear to this system entirely in about 18 hours. And even at that, it's fairly moderate right now, what little there is.