As we observe a subtle come back to Helene's intensity, while she charges to her North Sea death... a quick update on 96L:

Closer inspection of the satellite presentation shows a tendency for anvil debris to blow from S to N across the general axis of rotation, which of course is suggestive of shear in the area. There is a weak TUTT situated near 22N/43W and this is likely the culprit for said shear.

Interestingly, given the shallow nature of the still rather amorphous circulation, I believe this is allowing the system the W or slight W-NW motion. Notice the guidance that attempts to develop this quicker tend to also give it the NW component the earliest, which is then used to ultimately curve it up into the Reeper's arms. It may be that they develop convection deeply through this shear layer and atone for it by establishing this NW motion.

Given to the resistence to generate core-centered convection, this process may be premature in the guidance, when balanced against these observations. However, I do detect subtle increase in the cyclonic curl then this time yesterday. (It is noted that less closed circulation is being lifted in latitude as per the 18z GFS operational guidance. Poor initialization could be culprit but also the shallower nature appears to keep more W motion.)

Guidance unanimously damps said TUTT feature so it is unclear where the steering mechanism would come from beyond about 36 hours from now. Timing that attenuation, of its ability to exert a NW pull, along with rate of development of any TC will be key in assessing whether this gains all the latitude as quickly as the GFS cluster... Notice the CMC has much more southerly component off the 12z guidance.

John