Wow, Ed. Thanks for reposting that! While the dataset is limited, and other factors notwithstanding, the signal strikes me as crystal clear (active seasons, as reasonably defined, seem to -prefer- initially neutral ENSO conditions) as you conclude. I can't read that any other way.

I am curious as to some more of the finer points.. perhaps you could refer me to if you have them listed elsewhere, or could repost them here sometime?

Here are the other questions your review brings up:

How many of the initially neutral conditions also coincided with seasons that were:
about normal
below normal

and what then is the percentage of seasons with initially neutral conditions that were below, about, and above normal activity in the Atlantic?

Having gotten that far, were there possibly any other clues in any of the tea leaves that you were able to catch that may have offered an explanation as to why some of these initially neutral seasons went on to become which of the three final results?

Thanks