I typically go to the Colorado State Univ. Operational Model Guidance webpage and the SFWMD Forcast Models webpage for the first postings of the track and intensity model forcasts.

In response to the previous post, Met Clark included a link to the NHC/ATCF model output webpage.

2 questions;

On the NHC/ATCF site, why is it that the "ensemble" intensities for Dean start so low (35 kts) and then increase a bit for 12 hrs, and then predict steady decrease in intensity to 10 kts in 48 hrs and then holding steady? the "current" intensity forcast has Dean steadily increasing to 115 kts in 5 days.

And, why does the OFCI (does this mean Official? Can't be) intensity graph go down to 45kts in 5 days when the NHC forcast has Dean going to 115 kts in the same time frame?

I've seen some wide differences in the intensity forcasts but this is especially broad.