Well, that was interesting. 93L. While it lasted. Some cool graphics being posted and pretty interesting discussions, too.

But here we are again, back to square zero. The NRL Site, at the moment of writing, is showing "Nary an Invest...", the 2nd time this month. Even the MJO Pulse I had written about recently has weakened in it's 'signal strength', although it's still expected to enhance to probability of TC developement in the Eastern Pacific.

Yep, it's beginning to look more and more like an active year for the Pacific Basins. Which usually implies, for a number of reasons, a below-average year for the Atlantic.

From a few weeks ago: El Nino 'Watch' Now in Effect

And, for those who haven't seen it yet, look for Ed's Blog Entry titled "A Low-Activity Season Seems Likely". It's on the MAIN PAGE, if you scroll down past all the postings on 93L and just past the cluster of links for all the models and satellite links.

So, hopefully you guys will see a (relatively) quiet year, while numerous cyclones could harmlessly churn the vast Pacific. And, hopefully nary a one will come close to these 'Pearls of the Pacific'. No thank you. The best we could hope for, and is often the case, is that we will get beneficial rainfall from decaying cyclone remnants.

But then again, Hawaii is vulnerable to storms forming to the S or SW of the Islands in El Nino years, especially late summer and right on throughout the fall. Hurricanes Iwa (Cat 1 in Nov. '82) and Iniki (Cat 4 in Aug. '92) were *both* during El Nino conditions and slammed Kauai from the SW after meandering and 'gathering steam' for several days, lurking well SW of the Islands. Let's hope '09 is not a repeat of those horrible storms. But 'they' keep reminding us: "It's not a matter of if, but when".

One of the best things we have going for us is that Hawaii are only small islands in the middle of a huge ocean!

Here's wishing everyone a safe and enjoyable 4th of July week!