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TPC caught it and corrected at 2:40PM EST. TWD now reads: "THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW INDICATE A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." In the interest of time both the NHC and TPC use a lot of 'cut and paste' (so does your local NWS office) from one bulletin to the next - and sometimes a 'gotcha' gets ya There were other differences as well: pressure was assigned by NHC as 1010mb and by TPC as 1012mb. As is common with a developing system, the location was relocated (as in shifted) north to 8N 36W - but centerpoint has adjusted a little more to the west as of 13/21Z - about 8.0N and 36.5W as indicated by the last visible imagery. Cheers, ED |