This is a question for Ed. I am still learning about the SSTs and their long range effects on tropical cyclones. You mentioned that they appear to be on the cold side compared to 'normal'. I know that sea temps change much more slowly than air temps, but is it always the case that cold temps NOW will translate into colder temps during the season? Just as we have had a cold winter along the GOM that has the water temps lower than normal, can't we have a warm spring and make up the difference in the SSTs? Or have I stumbled on one of the reasons that long-range forcasting is so hard?
I guess the meat of the question is....how strong of a link is there between SSTs now and in the future?