This was discussing this mornings model runs, but the same guidelines go for now. although the 12z GFDL isn't quite out ye
Quote:
What the GFDL seems to be picking up on is just keeping the Atlantic ridge stronger through the period, which would force it more west if it occurred. This is a possibility, just not the most probable one.
Basically the ridge line for the GFS around the same period is along the NC/SC border, and for the GFDL the ridge line is near the FL/GA border. Look at the 500mb plots to see the ridge lines. This Animation you can see the "line" at 84 hours out running through the Ga/Fl border.
In this animation you see the GFS plot, which in 84 hours if you look for the line where the "yellow" turns to orange, you see it pass near the NC/SC border. This is a good representation of the ridge that is being talked about.
The GFDL is already a bit off, so the GFS is probably closer to what will happen. The cautionary note is that the GFS has a history of under doing ridges. The good news (for florida) is the consensus models have shifted east again, but worse news for the Carolinas. This will likely change more over the next 2 days.
|
Re: model question (Irene)