Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 25 2013 08:55 PM |
TWO Update
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Info from NHC:
National Hurricane Center extends Tropical Weather Outlook to five days
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) will extend the time period covered by the
Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from 48 hours to five days. It’s the first change in the
covered time period in several decades.
The NHC TWO is a text product that describes areas of disturbed weather and the
potential for tropical cyclone development during the following 48-hour period. A
probabilistic genesis forecast, to the nearest 10 percent, describing the chance of
tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours, is included for each area of
disturbed weather described in the Outlook.
Beginning on August 1 at 8 a.m. EDT, NHC will begin including information about a
system’s potential for development during the following five-day period. This information
will be provided probabilistically in 10-percent increments, and will supplement
the 48-hour probabilistic formation potential already provided.
NHC is currently developing a corresponding five-day genesis potential graphic that
may become available later this season.
The current Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook that highlights the location of areas
of disturbed weather and shows the 48-hour probabilistic genesis potential will remain
unchanged.