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conjecture
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forecast here next week is for more very hot weather. if there's, say, a hurricane chris going by to the south while the upper heights here are really high (like, h50 heights above 594dm)... got a hunch we'll see some record heat over much of the southeast.
HF 2143z01august
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Wed Aug 02 2006 01:56 AM
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Re: conjecture
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Only hope for not seeing that is if the ridge axis shifts to near the spine of the Appalachians and allows some relatively cooler air to funnel south down the mountains and into the southeast. That might be the difference between 95 and 100....or, it could have the opposite effect, bringing in a lot of relatively drier air and leading to an even stronger heat surge. Nevertheless, it's likely to be a hot one for the next week or so with no relief in sight.
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Marknole
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(Weather Watcher)
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Wed Aug 02 2006 02:06 AM
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Re: conjecture
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An August "wedge"? I can understand a subsidence effect from being on the dry side of a cyclone to the south, but aren't record-setting, triple-digit temps predicted for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and wouldn't that air mass be drawn south into the Big Bend (Clark and myself) and the S.C. Midlands (Hank)? Please explain...
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Wed Aug 02 2006 02:40 AM
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Re: conjecture
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Yeah, to some degree it would. But also, you'd get a fetch off of the Atlantic ocean carried inland, providing a bit of a moderating effect (but also more moisture). It really ould go either way...depends on the exact orientation of the flow.
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Re: conjecture
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if we get an afternoon with a near 600 dm h50 ridge centered over tennessee or north alabama, and the northwest flow from it downslopes from the appalachians into the piedmont and upper coastal plain... pair that with hurricane subsidence and the fairly dry soil moisture content here.. you're talking 105 easy.
last time i've seen temps like that was august 1, 1999. got to 107 up the road in augusta.
HF 0714z02august
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Clark
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(Meteorologist)
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Wed Aug 02 2006 01:57 PM
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Re: conjecture
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Yeah, that's what you don't want to see. Not sure about the chances on that one, though, not if Chris is to continue a steady march to the WNW -- think the axis might be a bit further east, or at least just elongated across the eastern 2/3 of the US.
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