danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 15 2011 08:00 PM |
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Florida Rain?
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It's a big IF at this point. The GFS Long Range is forecasting a large area of rain to develop in the GOM in the next 7 to 10 days.
The main difference is in which model run you choose to view. GFS changes every 6 hours, the changes can be subtle or large. Earlier, yesterday's model, indicated a low pressure system developing in the 7- 10 day period. Moving from the BOC along the whole TX Coast toward Louisiana. The low then appeared to have upper level support at the 300mb level with a weak High overhead.
Low meandered for 36-48 hours over coastal Louisiana before moving NE.
Today's models, so far, have moved the developing Low more to the east. Favoring the Florida Panhandle and Upper Peninsula with rainfall.
More to come in the days ahead. The development is in question due to the amount of time involved. But stranger things have happened.
And nearly everyone in the Deep South needs rain.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jun 19 2011 03:00 PM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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The GFS is forecasting a brief end to the Florida drought. Or at least a break from it.
Below are the current 5 Day, 10 Day and 15 Day totals rainfall forecasts. Cumulative rainfall, that is.
Looks like July 4th might be a bit damp. Less fire danger though!
5 DAY
10 DAY
15 DAY
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Jun 21 2011 10:28 PM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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Checking various models it looks like north Florida should see a start to the rainy season on Thursday and the Florida peninsula on Friday. I think that I read somewhere that this is now the latest timeframe for the start of thunderstorm season in central Florida.
ED
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 22 2011 05:01 AM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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It is VERY late although it depends on your definition of 'rainy season'. We have had rains in the area off and on for the past 2 weeks, but they have been much more scattered and isolated than would be normal for this point in the summer, thus the 'delayed' rainy season. Today there were some pretty solid storms around and if you were under one, and inch was very possible, but if you missed them, it was a scorcher (a 100 degree F temperature reading north of Tampa today...very unusual). We had thunder and wind here twice and only received sprinkles. Bring on the rain (even on Friday when we plan on a beach day)!!
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 23 2011 04:43 PM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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Glad y'all are getting rain!
I think we totally missed out on our usual 'rainy season'. We had a dry fall, dry winter and very dry spring.
We got a bit over an inch of rain night before last and it was very welcome! The temps have dropped 10 degrees (down to 95 and humid) for the next few days then back to the frying pan.
July is normally dry here and it looks to be dry this year too and unless we get something tropical we may not get rain till August.
No fireworks for us this year!
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jun 23 2011 09:57 PM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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Portions of Texas eastward to much of the southeast have been and continue to be under extreme heat and drought conditions this past Spring. Except for isolated showers, most of Florida still remains quite dry although our chances for rain should be on the rise over the next week. With regard to the use of fireworks and the potential for wildfires, you make an important observation. In Florida, 29 Counties now ban open fires and 22 of them now have a temporary ban on the use of fireworks as the Independence Day holiday approaches. In central and east central Florida those counties include Alachua, Brevard, Marion, Osceola, Polk and Volusia.
ED
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 24 2011 03:23 AM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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Here all the counties surrounding us have burn bans. No fireworks. Like no personal fireworks at all and most of the municipal fireworks shows have been cancelled too.
The only outdoor grills allowed are the propane/gas ones. No wood, no charcoal grills.
We've had days where it's so dry that they have told people to avoid mowing.
The drought goes from Arizona to Florida and Florida up to Virginia.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 24 2011 05:11 AM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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Storms rumbling around central Florida late tonight. Odd that this is the 3rd straight evening where heavy rain has moved to within several miles of my house, then washed out giving us a mere sprinkle, then reforming a more formidable line past us. Very frustrating to hear the thunder and drive through heavy rain to a bone dry neighborhood. But then again, that is Florida in the summer. Hopefully Friday and Saturday will bring more widespread amounts to the area!!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jun 25 2011 11:46 AM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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Got our first heavy rain last evening between 9 and 11 PM here in mid-Pinellas. A little over 1-1/2 inch at my house. I hope there will be more in the coming days and weeks. Really need this.
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 25 2011 09:43 PM |
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Re: Florida Rain?
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I knew you did Michael as we were at Ft Desoto until sunset and it rained all the way out of Pinellas county! We had 2 inches in the rain gauge in Plant City when we got home. Now we have had one good shower today and more thunder rumbling in the distance. MUCH needed!! I just hope this is the pattern for a while now and it doesn't just dry up again for a couple of weeks!
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 30 2011 03:13 PM |
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Re: Drought
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Well, it's a good thing TS Arlene did not have an extra 12 hours or so in the Gulf of Mexico. She could have easily become a hurricane if given some more time. At least Deep South Texas will see some rain from Arlene. Like the rest of Texas, they are dealing with severe drought down there.
(This is a better place for these and it helps to keep the Main Page on-topic.)
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jun 30 2011 05:55 PM |
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Re: Drought
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Quote:
Well, it's a good thing TS Arlene did not have an extra 12 hours or so in the Gulf of Mexico. She could have easily become a hurricane if given some more time. At least Deep South Texas will see some rain from Arlene. Like the rest of Texas, they are dealing with severe drought down there.
It would be nice if some of that moisture could move toward Arizona and New Mexico to help douse those fires.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 01 2011 04:07 PM |
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Re: Drought
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Quote:Quote:
Well, it's a good thing TS Arlene did not have an extra 12 hours or so in the Gulf of Mexico. She could have easily become a hurricane if given some more time. At least Deep South Texas will see some rain from Arlene. Like the rest of Texas, they are dealing with severe drought down there.
It would be nice if some of that moisture could move toward Arizona and New Mexico to help douse those fires.
I don't remember an Atlantic system that managed to make it all the way to NM never mind AZ - a Pacific system would though.
Trees here are dying because of the drought.