as far as the pattern this year, there are as usual a few unusual twists... perhaps more so than usual. there is a lot of high latitude blocking and a pronounced longwave pattern right right now. there is a persistent trough and low height anomaly in the east and western atlantic.. recently very warm with ridging in the west. as far as the basin goes, you can have above normal ssts any day, but basin shear is still much to high to allow anything to develop. there is ridging at low latitudes... around the caribbean and such. a blocking ridge has been migrating westward from the eastern atlantic. with all the blocking at high latitudes, stronger than normal low-height anomalies are in the mid latitudes. i think this pattern will persist into june.. when the westerlies weaken as the summer progresses, if a pattern such as this persists, we'll probably see a hybrid storm or two and odd-tracks for anything that develops at lower latitudes. the late summer pattern, when it becomes stable (probably late july-august) i'm thinking will be some longitudinally reconfigured version of what we had last year. that's only based on sst patterns.. with the anomalous blocking currently in place i'm not sure how it will evolve.. but when it does show up i'm thinking it will be stable.
HF 1841z23may