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95L is actually moving into weak shear.. take a look http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html It's showing signs of organization to as it heads WSW towards what appears to be 5 -15 knots of wind shear which makes it favorable. Unless that pocket of shear dissapates, A record breaking Arthur is not out of the books! I'd give it a 40 out of 100 for right now, it has blown up some light convection tightly around the COC, but it needs to get stronger convection before the people really get interested in it again. (Item was not mentioned on Main Page article - moved to a more appropriate Forum.) |
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System has drawn in a considerable amount of colder air over the past 24 hours as indicated by the stable cloud pattern over almost all of the extratropical low. Note that a subtropical cyclone in January would not be record setting - see STS #1 in 1978. ED |
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From the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion: "THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT THREATENED TO BECOME A NAMED SUBTROPICAL STORM DAYS AGO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W STEERED BY A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE. SAT IMAGES SHOW A HIGHLY ELONGATED N-S SFC TROUGH AXIS ALONG 47W WITH A POSSIBLE LOW PRES MINIMUM AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N...BUT EVEN THIS APPEARS TO BE OPENING. GALES HAVE COME TO AN END BUT WINDS REMAIN STRONG NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION DISCUSSED EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED LEAVING A COMPLETELY SHALLOW SYSTEM." Visible satellite imagery places the weak low near 23N 49W at 02/12Z under an area of north to northeast shear that will increase to 50 knots by Thursday morning. The remnant system should dissipate in a few days. ED |