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allan
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(Weather Master)
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Sun May 25 2008 10:29 PM
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Carribean Predictions
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Allrighty, now that some models are going with the GFS on this possible system, I'm making a forum on it. Now that I have seen agreement with the NOGAPS, now somewhat the CMC (still getting around there), and the GFS, I have a higher confidence that it might actually form by the end of the week. Right now, nothing can form for a few days due to higher pressures that are coming out in the Western Carribean. However, the moisture from the Pacific side might as some models are showing, swing northeast into the WC and possible form the forst depression or storm of the season. Most of the runs yesterday from the GFS had a hurricane hitting the Yucitan, then heading north into the GOM. The water tempuratures favor strengthening and if the GFS actually verifies, an anticyclone will form over the area. Now if we get an early storm does not mean we will have a hyperactive season, I'm really following the ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean. After 2005 and 2006, anything can happen, could be active or quiet. I'll have more info on the "possible" WC storm as more days pass and we know more about it. Comments anyone???
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Mon May 26 2008 01:29 PM
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Re: Carribean Predictions
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Oh!!! Yeah Here we go...... Been watching the models since Friday and run to run they have been holding steady. Round up the troops let's get it on....... Maybe someone can call the oil guys in the gulf and let them push oil to $200 this week they will call us crazy but I have a feeling this on will form...
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Re: Carribean Predictions
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Right now there is still a big "if" that there will even be a storm. But if we see a depression form then I think there will be a strong chance that it could become Arthur and take on similar characteristics in paths and strengths as Alberto and Beryl.
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Re: Carribean Predictions
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It became TS Arthur.
First storm of the season people!
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Genesis
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Jun 01 2008 11:26 PM
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Re: Carribean Predictions
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Pretty amazing....
Seat-of-the-pants here - when we see a season that starts like this with Caribbean activity west, this early, it generally forbodes poorly for the Gulf Coast.
Not always - but......
Barf.
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