| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Jul 08 2008 06:03 PM |
Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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As I was checking On Bertha I Looked at this satellite View and I noticed a Bit of a Swirl that Has been Keepen Its Spin Since Last Night. Its Fresh Off the coast of Africa. you can see it here http://www.baynews9.com/TropicalUpdate.html
Anyone else noticed this?
| kpost |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Jul 08 2008 06:28 PM |
Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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i am new and learning but at 120 hrs all 3 of these model show something. and it may be what your seeing.
the gfdl has it as a TD. if this could be something let me know, it will help me learn.
gfdl
gfs
hwrf
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Jul 08 2008 08:10 PM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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You Must Have given me the wrong link but thats Bertha on the links you posted above. I'll Look up something here.
| kpost |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Jul 08 2008 09:50 PM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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Bertha is in them but there is something 5 days behind her.
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 09 2008 01:28 AM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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oops my mistake.Ims till learning myself.
anywho I see what your talking about.If this holds up until tomorrow we may see something new ahead.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 09 2008 11:34 PM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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Quote:
As I was checking On Bertha I Looked at this satellite View and I noticed a Bit of a Swirl that Has been Keepen Its Spin Since Last Night. Its Fresh Off the coast of Africa. you can see it here http://www.baynews9.com/TropicalUpdate.html
Anyone else noticed this?
The 12z CMC model develops this into a depressing and gets it all the way to the Islands in by day 6.
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 10 2008 12:54 AM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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Its still Keeping Up ints spinning.Aswell as this other one. approaching the Winward Islands.. http://www.baynews9.com/TropicalUpdate.html
Im using one of my local news website Until I get more familiar with this stuff.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 10 2008 01:25 AM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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2 TC'S in early mid july??
NHC @ 8pm....
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS AT A FAIRLY LOW LATITUDE AND OF LOW
AMPLITUDE IT CONSISTS OF A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 10 2008 04:28 AM |
Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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:
This is getting me worried about the rest of this year season,Especially how powerful Bertha got so shortly....with me being in Florida's West Coast next to the gulf I realy hope we wont see any Huge Monster Canes near land.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 11 2008 03:42 PM |
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Tropical low Monday?
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Anyone else picking up on this from Henry Margusity's blog on AccuWeather...this is the second day he's mentioned it..
6. I remain concerned that the front gets held up along the Eastern Seaboard Monday, and a tropical low will develop along the coast and move north. Heavy rains may develop along the front, and I can see how someone could end up with 3-5 inches of rain from New England down to eastern Virginia.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 12 2008 02:14 AM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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well the Cape Verde season is open now in my opinion... Bertha kicked it off... and now looks like we could have TD 2 in the next 72 hrs out in the central atlantic... GFS is taking it a lot further south then Bertha's run... which it wouldn't susprise me if this came close to the carribean islands and or impacted the northern leewards...
Have to say GFS... seems to be doing good so far this year...
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 12 2008 05:24 AM |
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Re: Interesting Little wave Im seeing...
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I Just gone done viewing thins. http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs...d_some_hype.asp
I see over at accuweather they are also picking up something developing soon...theyre just trying to figure out from wich of the few tropical waves it will emerge from.
OK EDIT: well its 8:58 am and this feature I have been tracking has greatyl imrpoved IMO...looks like we may have a new TD within the 24 hours. the funny thing is there is another small circulation not far from the African coast,then we have a strong wave of energy comming off it later this week.then theres this little roation in the lower GOM though i doubt it will get far as its very close to land.Also Im trying to find it but i found a model on these L's and it showed a posible low developing right off of FL,and 2 in the carribean almost at the same exact time.... this will be very interesting.
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 12 2008 01:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical low Monday?
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It's showing better signs of devlopment now.may have a new td within 24 hours or so. maybe more than2 or more by the end of next week
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 12 2008 02:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical low Monday?
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CMC and NOGAPS are picking up on this as well. In fact, the Canadian model takes a new system straight into the Leeward Islands. Definitely something to keep an eye on in the upcoming days.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 12 2008 04:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical low Monday?
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I agree. I think we will see the 'possible cyclone formation warning' by tonight or tomorrow, with this closed low approaching 40W in 72 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Jul 13 2008 02:32 AM |
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Re: Tropical low Monday?
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Now we have a Big mess here in the Atlantic. Its basically a large wave with 2-3 circulations in it but from what I have been seeing develop since yesterday.However in cases like this the dominate circulation usually kills of the weaker ones&grows. We should know something more 24 hours from now. this model now picks up something potentially growing large heading in the gulf if it does develop.The real question is now wich circulation will it be. http://www.stormjunkie.com/pages/modelink/gfslr.html
&the NHC Is now giving it some attention atlast. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/122341.shtml?
| Freezey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Jul 14 2008 10:57 PM |
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Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things
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The GFS doesnt seem to be picking up 94L around 78 Hours on the recent run.Itl pick it up,then lose it again.
I was thinking that it could be from it Lossing some convection ,then gaining it back. I also Like to note that the Dry are on the west side of 94L is sort of delaying its intensification a bit...I must say with this one its going to take awhile to get going.I Know its bad to go on gut feelings on situations like this but I can see 94L doing a big comeback when it gets passed the Islands ahead.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 15 2008 04:02 AM |
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things
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As an aside, to whether or not 94L "should" or "should not" develop furher, I again notice this evening that latest 0Z GFS is hardly impressed with the system, as was in much earlier runs. GFDL from the 18Z does recognize 94L, albeit barely, and somewhat strengthens the systems and moves it westward under appearant low level to deep level 285 motion.
I was most impressed with how GFS sniffed out Bertha, and would be even moreso if in fact it accurately continues to have a seemingly good read on what thus far, has only proven evident of a somewhat shallow system ( despite my own thoughts to the contrary ).
Post moved to proper Forum... regarding forecast models.
| MiamiCanes |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jul 23 2008 05:05 AM |
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Re: CV Waves
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Quote:
GFS shows a lot happening in the next couple weeks comming off Africa
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_pcp_m_loop.shtml
how do you read this map?