Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 15 2008 10:59 PM
'Dolly' Lounge

by the way... did anyone see the 00z NAM?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/index_slp_m_loop.shtml


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Wed Jul 16 2008 11:01 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home

It seems the low is working its way through Florida- but will it end out in the Gulf Stream? I see 94L is looking like it is strengthening. i can't wait to see some modeling- but will it be subject to shearing if it goes WNW?

allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Jul 16 2008 11:07 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home

Doesn't 94L remind you of last years 94L in September?? I find it odd.. This certain system became one of the most strongest Hurricane in the ocean. The Hurricane developed rapidly and unexpectidly, when models had no idea it was even there in the first place. It seems like deja vu with this 94L over here. It seems like shear has weakened in it's path, well actually it's just moving north. Recon should find at least a TD if not a weak TS. It seems like with the numbers as high as 2.5, it's either a TD or s storm right now.

allan
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 18 2008 10:08 AM
Re: Charleston, SC AM Discussion (Portion)

94L has gotten much better organized and might I point out what scottsvb said earlier that it won't do anything until it reaches 70W or 72W which he was right. It had to get away from South America to organize. Earlier I though a new low was developing to the west of the convection, though it seems I was wrong and the low might be under the heaviest convection. Navy has it located 71W and 13.7N. Models continue to push northward and now put Texas and even Luisiana on the possibility. Still too far out but as 94L slowly starts to organize, we will know more on the track, a Tropical Depression can form at any given time according to the latest discussion from the NHC. Basicaly just needs a closed low and there, you have a TD.

If you are going to discuss model output, put it in the Forecast Lounge. Post moved.)


weatherguy08
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 18 2008 10:47 AM
Re: Focus on Low off Georgia Coast and Central Caribbean

The models take 94L on a path very similar to Hurricane Emily back in 2005. She took a very "low" path and went across the Yucatan Peninsula then into Mexico just south of the US-Mexico border. Coincidently, Emily was about this time of year (mid July). I also have been noticing that the models have been gradually shifting farther and farther north. It doesn't appear that this is going to be like Dean or Felix and take a straight-line path into central America. Assuming it develops, this could be one for the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 19 2008 02:21 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew

Re: 94L

Models are finally starting to initialize this disturbance correctly. By my own best forecasting ability, I'm still on a 75% chance that it becomes a TS within the next 6 days (probably sooner, if it does) and a 40% probability of it becoming a hurricane within 6 days (and probably sooner, if it does), and a 10% chance of it becoming a major hurricane within 6 days. Feeling vindicated so far tonight... in fact, GFDL just cranked out this whopper...certainly not the sort of thing we would like to see verified.

TD 3 should have a good chance of earning a name, provided it stays just to the right enough (and offshore!) to avoid ingesting too much of that dry air from its left, while enjoying just enough interaction with the gulf stream. In fact, it appears that it could simply ride the stream long enough.. and pick up a pace just fast enough.. to have reasonably low net-effective shear while ingesting plenty of gulf stream energy juice. While that's not even in the same galaxy as the current official forecast, and judging by how slowly its been getting its act together, looks like a bit of a stretch right now, I wouldn't write that possibility off. We've seen a few gulf streamers really pop this way from time to time.

3 AM EDT Addendum:

Sustained tropical storm-force winds are likely now occurring within 94L:

Invest 94L Location - 15N 74W (Per NRL at this time)

Station 42058 - Central Caribbean 15.09 N 75.06 W
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed:
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0601 33.4 kts ESE ( 104 deg true )


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jul 19 2008 07:34 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew

Re: 94L's GFDL run

The HWRF run shows something similar, but on a very different track:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.c...;hour=Animation

I'm thinking GFDL and HWRF are both picking up on high SSTs in the gulf. Much higher than in the Caribbean, and for a fast moving storm, the depth of the warm water has less impact (depth is shown in the Z26 map, and affects the HHC map).

See SST26 and HHC maps here: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html

The biggest question is track. NOGAPS takes it into the Yucatan, preventing any chance of significant development. GFS brings it into the gulf, on about the same track as the HWRF. GFDL is the eastern outlier of these major models.

If you want to see all the major model tracks: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ (currently 94L is frame 3, but it could change)

Speaking of model runs, anyone know anything about the GHM model? I haven't noticed it before, and it's listed over at NCEP: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur/storm_1/00/index_hurpage.shtml

Edit: PS - I like Avila's comment on Bertha in the latest NHC forecast discussion - "CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS. "


weatherguy08
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 19 2008 09:12 AM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew

It really looks like 94L is feeling the effects of that upper-level low over Cuba. Models show this low breaking down during the next few days. Maybe this will open the door for development in the western Caribbean Sea.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Jul 19 2008 09:18 PM
Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms off South Carolina Coast

94L
not sure about tonight's upgrade... i'm just having a hard time figuringout what the upper level low ahead is going to do... and it seems to be the major factor in my book right now... we have TS force winds to the east and north of the low.... south of jamica... with the high in the atlantic helping...


UPDATE: Tonights run on the 00Z pkg.. has invest for 94L.... but all models bring it to TS with the next 24hrs...SHIPS even goes up to Hurricane Forecast at the end of the run... 77kts in96hr


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0010 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080720 0000 UTC


weatherguy08
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 19 2008 10:34 PM
Re: 94L and TD3 the Crystal Ball crew

Decided I should put this in the forecast lounge as opposed to the main forum.

I don't know how much significance this has, but in the NHC's recon plan for tomorrow (Sunday), the points where they want the recon to investigate are to the north of the model guidance. Perhaps they have a different thinking on the forecast track of this system than the models. Any thoughts?

I'm not sure, but the circulation maybe moving more to the north, around 17 north 79 west.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Jul 20 2008 12:12 AM
think it looks better tonight/now than for a while

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Also..when you look at a wide basin view on IR or a WV the first and almost only thing that jumps on you is 94.

It's developing a signature of sorts too. Moves more fluid, tumbling look to it and a spin and it's huge compared to
Cristobal.

If it finds a way to fight the ULL off... watch out.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Jul 20 2008 08:52 AM
Attachment
Re: 94L

Latest IR and Watervapor runs at SSD are showing an impressive core developing over Grand Cayman. Very cold cloudtops. SSMIS (at NRL) just got a microwave overpass and doesn't show a consolidated internal structure yet, but with this large, deep convection now taking over, we could see rapid consolidation.

The model runs, such as the 06Z GFDL run, are locking onto the southern convective zone near central america that has just about died out now, rather than the one over Grand Cayman. The tracks from GFDL for that run take this system over the tip of the Yucatan. If one were to guess that the new center would track a similar, but parallel, path, we could extrapolate that the system would thread the area between the Yucatan and Cuba, keeping the core intact for entry into the gulf. I'm thinking, thus, that this storm may be more powerful than the various intensity models are showing, as they are based on tracking the wrong internal low of the system.

Reference:
IR (JSL colors)
IR (Funktop colors)
IR (AVN colors)
IR (Ramsdis area coverage)
Water Vapor
SSMIS data
Model tracks, using the southern core that is dieing (see Frame 3)

Edit: adding reference links

Our morning view of 94L:

[


islandtime
(Registered User)
Sun Jul 20 2008 02:47 PM
Re: 94L

How will the ULL to the NW (positioned over the Yucatan) of Dolly affect her movement? I have noticed at times that the low seems to be almost pulling 94L/Dolly northwards. Could this ULL pull Dolly through the gap and lessen the chance of interacting with the Yucatan?



dat_weather_guy
(Registered User)
Sun Jul 20 2008 06:42 PM
Re: 94L

Seems to me that the circulation 'center' is plotted too far south and west on the map compared to what one sees on the RGB long image loop.

Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Jul 20 2008 08:18 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

What a place to relax! A long range forecast for Dolly for me would bring her ashore just north of the MX/TX border by about 30 miles being hardly a Cat 1 Hurricane.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Jul 21 2008 02:22 AM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

From the hazy clouds here it looks like they're running HAARP. I think it's headed to Texas.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Jul 21 2008 09:18 AM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

Model runs are a bit further north this morning, but I just don't trust them, especially since Dolly is so weak and the ridge of high pressure is so strong. As for me, I'm going for the more westerly solution right now.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Jul 21 2008 07:20 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

northside of Brownsville, TX... sadly if the storm slows as forecasted... then the farther north i think it would move... cat2-3... as of right now.. tonight she should get her act together.

Old Sailor
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Jul 21 2008 07:33 PM
Re: Recon

Looking at Dolly I feel that she still be a TS when she makes land fall on the Mex/TX area.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Jul 21 2008 09:29 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

As of tonight I'm still thinking generally more westward, it's starting to get more organized, but slowly and it could gain more overnight, but I'm still somewhat "bearish" wish it. My guess now is South of Tex/Mex border as a cat 1. Don't take my word for it, listed to the National Hurricane Center.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Mon Jul 21 2008 10:17 PM
Re: Recon

I think its going to be considerably stronger than a TS. An eye is becoming visible in the SAT images. If the eye finishes forming the bottom is going to drop out of this. Its got a very strong outflow channel on the north and east sides

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Jul 21 2008 10:43 PM
Re: Recon

Looks like Dolly has formed somewhat of an eye, a sign she is strengthing....I was looking at the visible radar tonight and saw that nice eye forming.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 22 2008 11:31 AM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

Landfall 15 miles south of Brownsville, TX, with sustained winds of 90 mph... thats my forecast / guess!!

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 22 2008 05:32 PM
Attachment
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

the inner eyewall is starting to show up on Dolly

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Jul 22 2008 07:29 PM
Attachment
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

thought this was pretty cool... two planes... side-by-side

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Jul 23 2008 07:20 PM
Attachment
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

some cool 3D radar shots i took as the eye made landfall

Storm Cooper
(User)
Wed Jul 23 2008 07:40 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge



A shot on radar about 2:47CDT 7/23/08


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Jul 23 2008 08:21 PM
Re: 'Dolly' Lounge

very nice Cooper! love the map, esp. the water gradient look..


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