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weathernet
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Aug 02 2008 02:09 PM
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90L Forms S.W. of Cape Verde Islands
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As of this morning, 90L has now been officially classified. Looks to be in a far better environment than its northerly sister, 99L. As of 12Z this morning the initial classification puts 90L at 11.5N and 27.7W. Movement towards the West and pressure initialized at 1009mb
The early statistical forecast is rather "bullish", with the 24 hour SHIPS model bringing winds right up to tropical storm strength ( 34knots - approx. 40mph. ) and the 24 hour BAMD takes it too 11.5N and 36.3W. Going way out there, the 120hr. forecast naturally has some spread in their respective tracks, with the deep layer BAM at 14.8N and 69.1W, with the shallow layer BAM much farther north around 24N. SHIPS intensity model at 120hr brings 90L up to a hurricane, at 69 Knots. Of course its way early on this one yet, but given the light shear and warmer SST's ahead, along with what the early signs of this season have already shown, i'd probably bet the .75 cents in my left pocket on development here.
Longer term? Geez, I think I need some coffee before I look at that much data this Sat. morn. Anyway, better to see if 90L persists through the day, just to see if later model data has a chance to even know its there.
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tommy
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(Registered User)
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Sat Aug 02 2008 07:20 PM
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Re: 90L Forms S.W. of Cape Verde Islands
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hi weathernet looks like some of the models takes 90L in to the caribb. in a few days . and some take it more to the east . we may need to keep a eye on this one but let me ask you something you think that upper level low over cuba will keep it from doing anything in the caribb. i have my eye on that low in the gom also i think in a few days we could see a tropical disturbance from it looks like there may be a middle/upper level cyclonic circulation . my wind shear link is down but i think wind shear will be ok . the gfs /nam has it forming and going up the la. coast line going west the waters in the gom are warm big time .
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_030l.gif
(In the future, use the Private Message capability for personal messages. Remember that CFHC is not a Chat Roon.)
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Sat Aug 02 2008 07:57 PM
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Re: Wave Watching
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90L is starting to really get its act together. There is definite rotation on the loop at the navy sight. The models seem to take this one due west for a while and are more bullish on intensity than they have been on the other systems off Africa so far...and its only August 2nd. This one looks like its going to be a force to be reckoned with
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 02 2008 09:20 PM
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Re: Wave Watching
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It looks like the SAL might catch 90L. Just wanted to know if anyone had any thoughts about that.
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weathernet
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sun Aug 03 2008 05:31 AM
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Re: 90L Forms S.W. of Cape Verde Islands
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Well, all systems appear to be going through diurnal processes, however remain inclined to believe 90L to be the candidate to soonest develop. A future threat to the Caribb.?? Perhaps. Any cutoff low currently in the Caribbean would not have any impact on motion or development due to the distance away from 90L. That, and the fact that while 90L is moving westward at a good clip, all other weather features are also not "static" and are moving and/or evolving. What ridge or upper low may exist one week down the road is basically "off the radar" for all practical discussion.
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