Quote:

---

What we do have is a category 4 storm, which won't hold that for 5 days, shear will weaken it a bit, it may go stronger for a bit, it may go down to a category 1. If it maintains the core it will be a problem, but it likely won't.

---

Quote:

---

If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

If Ike is still showing this over the weekend, then there will be more to be concerned with. Anyone getting Anxious about it now is jumping the gun.

---

there is a fine line between anxious and concerned. as a 50-yr resident of east central florida, i'm very concerned about the good possibility of a W/NW moving catagory 4 hurricane in the Bahamas on the september 10th peak of the season.

---

Quote:

---

we should start to feel effects sunday night as the local weathermen said.

---

Quote:

---

The good news is that Hanna left some cooler water behind that Ike must go thru, thus some weaken before landfall should occur.

---

Quote:

---

the 11am came out, it is further south. this is a bit comforting. however models are kinda still all over the place. so for a breif moment, south east florida can breathe a bit until we further updates.

---

Quote:

---

Very frustrating. I'm still not sold on the more southerly track yet. I usually do not get sold one way or the other until MOST ALL the models come into some semblance of harmony. Right now, as it stands, we've got two different camps...so for right now, I'll split the difference between the two.

I still think that unfortunately, we'll have to wait until late tomorrow to really start "feelin' the love" with the models and forecasted track.

I'm going to wishcast here and go to bed tonight and wish/pray like heck that I'll wake up and somehow the shear will have eaten him alive and he's all gone! (I know, not likely but, a girl's gotta have a dream!)

Man, I hope the Keys start evacuating post haste. Like say 4am for visitors/tourists and Sunday A.M. for residents. I know it took us 7 hours just to get from Key West to Key Largo during Fay. We left at 9am on Sunday. Brutal.

---

Mandatory evac for visitors 9am Sat; for us conchs staged evac starting at 8am Sun; please don't clogged up the road for me please ... - take care.

Quote:

---

Not sure if this is what you are looking for or not;

http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/index.htm

---

Quote:

---

Been looking at models, tracks, and graphs and adding it together with what some of yall are saying and it looks like theres a possibility of Ike passing through the Florida Straits into the Gulf and making a curve into or near the Cedar Key area . Wondering what the rest of you think?

---

Quote:

---

Hi - haven't seen that one yet (updated HWRF) - we (I) depend so much on Cuba this time of year. - thanks

---

Quote:

---

I'm still on the fence about putting up the shutters I just purchased in the pouring rain this morning....I"m really leaning towards....just put em' up. What's the worst that can happen? I (we) in SoEFla get spared and I get practice...I'll take it!

---

Quote:

---

It looks as if good ole Hanna is actually effecting the depth of the high

---

Quote:

---

...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

...
The forecast over the next few days will be complicated by Ike's interaction with Cuba. If Ike traverses the spine of Cuba for two days--as some models predict--then I can't imagine much of it surviving that journey. ...

---

There has been quite a bit of talk about relying on Cuba to weaken the storm. Common sense would lead us to believe this, the Mets like to talk of this, and to a minute degree it is true, Cuba can have some disruptive effects on a TS or Hurricane.

But all available data show the effect is transitory at best and non-existent at worst.. A storm's interaction with Cuba his little to no long term effect on its' strength at an eventual mainland strike.

If you study the historical data of every storm that ever traversed cuba, either along the spine, across the mountains, on a diagonal path, or just a glancing blow, only two in 90 years of historical data were actually weakened enough to be considered "shredded" and both of these were able to regain their pre-cuba strength.

1. Inez who bounced along Cuba's southern coast before making a diagonal crossing for four days at approx. 5mph. She was reduced from a Cat 3 to a Cat 1 after four days of interaction over Cuba's land mass. And even she managed to eventually strengthen to a Cat 4, although slowly.

2. Dennis was reduced from a Cat 4 to a Cat 1 within 24 hours of crossing Cuba. However, after exiting Cuba, within 24 hours his windspeed recovered to 145mph and Cat 4 status.

Many have managed to INCREASE intensity while crossing Cuba, see Frederick, Charley, Georges, Elena, King, Baker, Alma, Isbell, Hilda, #741 1948, #723 1946.

Most have managed to MAINTAIN intensity while crossing Cuba, see Lili, Cleo, Easy, #740 1948, #707 1944, #604 1933, #547 1926, #622 1935,

A few were weakened, but this was a temporary effect. ALL but Inez were able to regain their former strength within just 24 hours, most within 12 hours.

So the "Cuba Effect" while interesting, has had little to no ability to permanently reduce a hurricane's strength below it's pre-cuba status.

It is possible that Cuba has "saved" the mainland USA from a few strikes that might have been slightly stronger had they not interacted with Cuba, but that's conjecture. Historical data shows Cuba is a road bump, not a show stopper.

Note: I only studied storms that were Cat 3 and higher at any point during their development, not necessarily while near Cuba or at landfall. Their intensities near Cuba ranged from TD to Cat 4.

---

Quote:

---

As can be easily seen from this plot of Ikes projected path.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=t&m=09&av=20089613

He comes off cuba as a cat 1 and very quickly regains strength to cat 3 atleast.

Also, I still believe that Hanna is going to pull the impending ridge too quickly to the East for Ike to latch onto it. If you look at the time lines of Hanna and Ike, Hanna will be way back out to the Atlantic by Tues. at 8 am, and Ike will just then be reaching the point where the northward turn is supposed to occur

---

Quote:

---

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.

Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !

---

More like the cone of Uncertainty

I think at the 11pm EDT update Ike is going to have strengthened a good deal more than at the 8pm EDT update. His eye is much more defined than it was and he is looking more and more impressive.

Also, looking at the water vapor imagery from the GOES satellite, the ridge that is supposed to create the weakness for Ike to turn north with is already almost over Florida, and Ike is still almost 2 days away from turning back to the NW over Cuba...this feeds into the accuracy of the latest models at Skeetobite, I don't think you can get much more of a consensus than this. A little difference in latitude, but all the same general "western-GOM" motion.

Quote:

---

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?

---

Quote:

---

Probably a "newbie" question - why are the Bahamas under a hurricane warning and NOT in the cone?

---

Quote:

---

Very interesting stat from local tv met.17 tropical systems have been where Ike is now,and all have hit south Florida directly or went to our east.

---

Quote:

---

Bob... Ike is not coming to your area. There is no model that shows it coming there and its almost impossible for it to move NW into a ridge. IKE is a GOM event with the Keys having a 40% chance.
The Gulfstream flight really doesnt matter much cause All the models agree on a west path across or near Cuba and into the SE Gulf somewhere. Its not like 1 or 2 models dont show this and the NHC wants that data to see which model is right. Also like Thunderbird said, its only for a short term (24-36hr) movement cause condtions change, thats why another flight is the next day.

---

Quote:

---

Yeah you can't get much more straightforward than this from the latest forecast discussion;

HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

The "central" line of the track now points almost directly at Houston, we'll see how this plays out. We should have additional recon data at 1am CDT that will tell us the more accurate strength and atmospheric conditions.

---

Quote:

---

you might want to change that to the Florida Peninsula or east coast, don't think the panhandle is out of the woods yet, with the hwrf model hitting there and a slight turn late in the gfdl and gfs....it may all come down to the speed of the storm and where it is when a break in the ridge occurs

---

Quote:

---

What's your guess on the current threat level for New Orleans? Do you know if they are already planning for yet another evacuation? Has Nagin made any statements?

---

Quote:

---

models are still way too inconsistent for an accurate 5 day...GFS went from Cedar Key FL yesterday morning to Corpus Christi TX last night to central LA today....the changes per run are over 200 miles...we still have another day before i think an accurate Gulf path is determined

---

Quote:

---

Question is probably better answered by a Met.
My thinking is the outer pressure is weakening and allowing the storm envelope to expand.
Also known as the ridge moving or breaking down. Could be a good thing or it might be a bad thing. Only time will tell.

Models have updated and now have four out of twelve making landfall between Panama City Beach,FL and Vermillion Bay,LA.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif

---

Quote:

---

There is no chance of it coming here.

---

Quote:

---

They usually have it in the archives. Interesting thing is. Only 1 storm ever has not hit florida that was within 300 miles of ike right now. This is a once in a lifetime event that it won't hit florida.All that tells me is, the chances of central florida like tampa area has a very slim to none chance to ever be hit directly by a hurricane.

---

Quote:

---

Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.

---

Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.

A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.

My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration.

Quote:

---

The NHC website has an archive section

---

Quote:

---

Quote:

---

Central and South Florida is out of the cone. There is no chance of it coming here.

---

Until the storm... any storm is north of your location there is still a slight change, or 50/ 50 chance, of the storm hitting your location.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 is a perfect example.
Hurricane Charley was forecast to hit Tampa and turned NE.
I could go on and on.

A Storm in the GOM or Caribbean requires a minimum of checking the Storms status and forecast every 6 hours. Regardless of whether you are in the Cone or not.

My personal opinion and not necessarily that of the Management or Administration.

---