MikeC
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(Admin)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 06:25 PM
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Ana lounge. Where will it will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Where do you think TD#2 will go? Will it strengthen? Will it fall apart? West or out to sea?
Here in the lounge, pondering and guesses are allowed.
As of 2:30PM on Aug 11::
UKMET - Trend West
GFDL - Trend West, also this run forms another system closer to Florida
GFS - Pure Crazy: Sends TD#2 through the Florida straights, and has a massive system behind it heading toward the US.
Animated Model plots - See Trends over time.
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hogrunr
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(Weather Guru)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 08:17 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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Mike:
I'm interested in hearing what is crazy about the GFS long term right now. Not doubting what you are saying, but just curious of the reasoning behind it.
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 08:21 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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History is always important...with this track record, recurvature looks like a pretty safe bet
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200902_climo.html#a_topad
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 08:23 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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The GFS is traditionally overly aggressive with its development of systems with little data input. It tends to correct itself after several good data runs.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 08:25 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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I noticed that development in the GFDL over the Keys on Friday and Saturday. It will be interesting to see if that trend persists in subsequent runs and if the other models pick it up.
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saluki
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 09:15 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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My best, highly unscientific guess right now is still for a weak, recurving storm that passes well north of the Leewards and might be a nuisance for Bermuda, if anyone. But these things have a way of surprising us. Let's hope the long-term GFS isn't any more accurate than usual.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 09:42 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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Crazy in the fact GFS runs that far out for tropical systems have never been close, historically. And the fact it has two systems near or over Florida very soon after each other. It's pure crazy to put much stock into it.
TD#2 itself, most likely, will stay away from land. And that's what I am thinking now. The models have trended west and a little south, but not enough to counter away from land. I'm more interested in what may happen beyond TD#2, at least now.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 11 2009 10:57 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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As a hurricane fanatic, its great to have something to watch but I think its all much ado about nothing.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 12 2009 12:55 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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Still not sure what to make of the long range models, African wave is lighting it up, but TD#2 gets further west at the end of the period.
Wave Heights (Based on the GFS) is interesting too.
Remember this is all lounge and probably won't happen.
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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i dont know a lot of model runs have it taking that NW turn by tomorrow. but after jeanne? (i think thats the one that turned N then NE then STATIONARY then WEST lol) i dont trust curvature motions.
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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Agree on the crazy models. That second system looks pretty fierce if it pans out per the model. Sort of taking the track Floyd took. I am anxious to see these model runs in the next 48.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Wed Aug 12 2009 06:32 PM
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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The 12Z CMC actually merges TD #2 with the African wave. I call that crazy. 
The gfdl brings a weak system/storm toward the leeward islands and the gfs brings a rather vigorous storm into the same area at the end of the run period. At any rate, it will be an interesting week to watch for what really happens.
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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Looking at the WV loop, I agree on that westerly track for TD#2. It looks like that high will keep it southerly than the models are indicating. Maybe a northerly turn around 60 W?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.html
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Re: TD#2 lounge. Crazy Models and Best Guesses
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I wonder why the CMC model is predicting a merge?.
You don't see that too often.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 11:12 AM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Ana has now formed (really), and a good chunk of the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Florida are now in the Cone. Where do you think it will go and how strong?
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 11:43 AM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Models one vs the other
HWRF - strengthens before landfall at/near S. Florida:
GFDL - Into Leewards and across islands, basically falling apart due to land interaction:
I'd hope for the second, but be aware of both.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 11:54 AM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Lyons on TWC did a nice graphic this morning that looped the progress of the current wave south of Florida across the northern edge of the Antilles and southern Bahamas, and suggested the pattern will continue over the next week. He saw no reason to argue with the NHC forecast into the end of the period.
Intensity, there is no way to know. Small storms (Charlie and Andrew) can be very intense. But what caused them to rapidly intensify were specific factors they encountered shortly before they approached land fall. Lets stay with strong TS and hope that is correct.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 11:57 AM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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A few people are emailing me about the "A" storm heading to south Florida, and i know several of you with Andrew experience are nervous, but there still is some time for Ana to not do that as well. Please just watch it, until we know it's north of the Caribbean in the Bahamas at least.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 12:23 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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The SST's here are 88 degrees.That is pretty darn warm.The weekend is here,so this is a great time to double check your supplies.
I am just hoping we don't get a 1-2 punch, as soon to be TD#3 looks to follow roughly the same path as Ana.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 12:43 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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The south Florida Area Discussion references the EMCWF model, which apparantly takes it into Central Florida, other models are further south, but the EMCWF was the only one that initialized Ana in the proper spot.
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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wow, did td 2 really throw a lot of people for a loop. funny, the model runs of gfs yesterday predicted this. and 90l might form as well today. the unclassified shearing products from the navy showed some favorable areas at 20N 40W. the same area that if any effect to 90l will happen, it will happen there. but beyond that the water tempature is favorable. the latest steering product gives you an idea of the open area the storm has.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
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weathernet
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(Storm Tracker)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 01:31 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Given the typically greater credance to EMCWF, I am curious as to the 0Z run which has 90L ( or TD4? ) soon taking off the the NW and safely into the N. Central Atlantic. Has done that for a couple of recent runs. Bigger systems are more equatorial in motion, than polar. That and the other models pretty much all take it towards the Bahamas. Oh well, enough of that for now....., gotta go out and stock up on some bottled water for a potential Ana visit next weekend!
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mwillis
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 01:34 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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I am suggesting that anna will fall apart and 90L will be dominate feature
The model I am liking is the GFS
CMC is similar
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
WOW HWRF has a 90l as a 950mb storm. I know it probably will NEVER happen but its interesting, I dont think Ive seen a storm that deep before
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/hwrf/invest90l/fcst/archive/09081506/1.html 
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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my best guess will stay the same as before. landfall on broward county. to the wnw then nw through tampa and n and then ne to the hurricane dumpster.
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kevin_1
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(Registered User)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 02:27 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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My guess is Ana passes between Florida & Cuba and makes landfall on the SW Louisiana coast
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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I think its a little to early to predict landfall for Ana, yet the cone is a little disturbing to say the least for us in Brevard County. Both 90L and Ana bare watching(what we all do best) to see if they get into the Bahamas which seems likely at least for Ana so far. Might have an interesting weekend coming up . Just for the heck of it, does anybody think Ana making Cat 1 or 2 six days out ?
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mcgowanmc
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 05:16 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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FLHurricane had the best info last year. Looking forward to the same this year.
Hurricane Season is upon us. Our July rainfall totals set all time records in Arkansas:
At Little Rock (Pulaski County), the monthly total of 11.65 inches made it the wettest July on record (breaking the previous record of 9.23 inches in 1891).
And July also went down as the coolest since 1968. 1968 was a very quiet 8 named storms, zero major season.
We'll see. Good luck, everybody.
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Quote:
The SST's here are 88 degrees.That is pretty darn warm.The weekend is here,so this is a great time to double check your supplies.
I am just hoping we don't get a 1-2 punch, as soon to be TD#3 looks to follow roughly the same path as Ana.
I agree with your second point. We have had a pretty wet summer such that if the first one passes over or just south of us we could be completely soaked. Then you REALLY don't want to see a second system in the same pattern. Problem is that it seems we get SOME pattern set up here and it DOES tend to hang around for a couple of days at least (sometimes much longer this season). So there is some history to suggest these two may come into the area back to back on similar paths. Getting some of the type of supplies today that we would use up anyway after the season....just in case 
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saluki
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(Weather Hobbyist)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 06:35 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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With some of the models shifting a bit south, my guess now is that Ana is a northern Cuba and/or Keys storm -- if it makes it that far. It's struggling with shear, dry air is ahead of it, and it's questionable whether Ana could survive a close encounter with Hispaniola.
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Quote:
With some of the models shifting a bit south, my guess now is that Ana is a northern Cuba and/or Keys storm -- if it makes it that far. It's struggling with shear, dry air is ahead of it, and it's questionable whether Ana could survive a close encounter with Hispaniola.
Latest discussion on Ana is really hedging their bets on this storm. Seems like they are saying that is COULD hold together, or it COULD fall apart. One thing they don't seem to think will happen is for it to strengthen much. Hopefully some of the models (especially shear) will come into focus in the next couple of runs.
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Since we don't have a thread about the area over the Keys, I figured this was where to post this observation. We just had a band of rain move through that was very tropical in feel. Didn't last long, lots of wind with it and moderate blustery rain. Darned if it didn't feel a bit like a week squall band from a TS. Look at the radar images from central Florida this afternoon.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 07:06 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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any thoughts on tampa with this ana?http://i.flhurricane.com/cyclone/images/icons/shocked.gif
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 09:37 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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At this point my question is moot, but I'll ask anyway: When TD2 showed up, and was designated, then fell apart, did it get to stay TD2? Or did it go from "Remnants of TD2" straight to Ana?
Where's the NHC numbering convention? My google-fu is failing me.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sat Aug 15 2009 09:39 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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I would say Tampa would be a bit premature at this time. The animated model has barely reached the east coast.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sat Aug 15 2009 10:50 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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The system was redesignated as TD2 at about 1235am and upgraded to TS Ana at 5am today (EDST).
ED
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Aug 16 2009 02:01 AM
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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ANA is about to become a remenent low by Sunday.... dry air is killing her!
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sun Aug 16 2009 02:14 AM
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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I wouldn't write off Ana just yet. It has been rather persistent in a hostile environment so far. Ana has a fairly good envelope of moisture and has been fighting off the drier air around her. The system just off FL is still getting wrapped and is moving fairly rapidly to the NW-NNW - now just west of Punta Gorda on the radar presentation. If not a TD at 11 PM ET, then by 5 AM if it persists.
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scottsvb
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(Weather Master)
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Sun Aug 16 2009 03:01 AM
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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ANA has no model support anymore...or hardly..and they wont upgrade the GOM disturbance until @ least 11am Sunday if @ all...its mostly in the midlevels!
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gatorman
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Sun Aug 16 2009 02:50 PM
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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if Ana goes where it is forcasted to go, in the gulf, what would stop it from developing? TD4 seems to have developed very nicely in a relative short peroid of time, seems like ana would be over warmer SST and have a longer peroid over these waters? and if it did develop back to a TS or even a weak hurricane, poleward movement would drasticly change forecast,correct??just wondering.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Sun Aug 16 2009 02:56 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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Quote:
The system was redesignated as TD2 at about 1235am and upgraded to TS Ana at 5am today (EDST).
ED
Thanks Ed!
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naplesdave
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(Registered User)
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Sun Aug 16 2009 03:16 PM
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Re: Ana lounge. Where is will go? Models and Best Guesses
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It seems to me the weaking called for further down the road (Tuesday to Wednesday), is based on it's assumed interaction with land. If the track were to be 100 or more miles further south it would minimize this interaction. What effect would this have on an intensity forcast if it were to stay south over the caribbean as opposed to scraping over all those mountains? All this assumes it survives it's current problems.
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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Quote:
if Ana goes where it is forcasted to go, in the gulf, what would stop it from developing? TD4 seems to have developed very nicely in a relative short peroid of time, seems like ana would be over warmer SST and have a longer peroid over these waters? and if it did develop back to a TS or even a weak hurricane, poleward movement would drasticly change forecast,correct??just wondering.
well i agree with what your saying, however, while the gulf is condusive for development, i dont think the forecast track is going to give ana enough body of water to strengthen. but thats based on its track as of right now. one think i noticed is clark evans intensity plot seemed to have the agencies split in the middle for development back into a ts and maybe a hurricane 3 or 4 days out. so im not entirely sure. what i am sure of, is florida will feel it. its just a matter of how bad. this might end up like another fay.
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gatorman
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(Verified CFHC User)
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Tue Aug 18 2009 04:13 PM
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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latest IR shows ana may be starting back up? i think im seeing a slight rotation, any chances this may form back into TD or TS? looks like this one may have more room for development than claudette did? anyone have any thoughts on this??
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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thats what the latest ir forecast shows. it shows it fireing up back into a TD. interesting to say in the least. personally, the nhc ditched ana the first time around and brought it back and now ditched it again. needless to say i wouldnt be surprised to see it form into a td once more.
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hogrunr
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(Weather Guru)
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Wed Aug 19 2009 12:36 AM
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Re: Ana and Storm Preps
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The NHC says in their 8pm ET , that the remnants of Ana don't show any signs of reorganizing...how is that possible? The restarting of circulation seems pretty obvious from the IR satellite.
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