MikeC
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(Admin)
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Mon Aug 24 2009 06:41 PM
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Danny Lounge
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This is the lounge for 92L and whatever comes of it. Discussing your thoughts and models, things are more open here.
Models for 92L are interesting, the CMC for example takes 92L into Maryland/ Washington DC as a Category 4 storm, others take it out to sea.
Most of the time the early model runs are very wrong, but it's a good idea to have a watch on the system in case.
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Mon Aug 24 2009 06:58 PM
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Re: 92L Lounge
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I think it will come close to Hatteras and then recurve, but a lot depends on how quickly it develops and how far west it gets. Even with recurvature, it's probably going to make landfall somewhere if it gets within 200-300 miles of the coast.
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craigm
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(Storm Tracker)
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Mon Aug 24 2009 09:03 PM
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Re: 92L Lounge
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Today being the 17th anniversary of Andrew making landfall in Homestead I thought it would be appropriate to place these comments in the 92L lounge to remind us how rapidly things can change with these systems this time of year. I am in no way suggesting that synoptics are even remotely similar to what was going on during Andrews trek through the Bahamas only that rapid intensification can happen with the right conditions. Keep in mind Andrew went from a tropical storm to a cat 5 hurricane between 65W and 75W at a similar latitude to where 92L is lurking. Until/if 92L evolves into a closed low obviously it can't intensify into anything. So we need to stay vigilant and watch even these seemingly doomed systems, UKMET had 92L dissipating earlier but, way to early with this one.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 25 2009 04:06 PM
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Re: 92L Lounge
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High noon on the 25th and it looks as if near 22.5/63.5 something may be popping. Movement to the NW. If so GFS seems to be all over it, and makes a threat to NE in a couple of days.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 25 2009 04:22 PM
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Re: 92L Lounge
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Totally agree with you on that one. Looks to be a small yet tight LLC that has closed off and is shooting off to the NW near 22.5/63.5. I believe it is set for a recon this afternoon. Wouldn't be supprised if we jump right to a TS.
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Unregistered User
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(Unregistered)
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Tue Aug 25 2009 04:53 PM
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Re: 92L Lounge
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Do we need to be worried here in Wilmington NC?
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 25 2009 05:31 PM
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Re: 92L Lounge
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Quote:
Do we need to be worried here in Wilmington NC?
Right now? Just keep updated on it. Interesting: The WV loop of the Eastern US shows that the trough that steered Bill away from the US coast left a cut-off low moving SW near Louisiana, but there is sufficient SWestery flow up the East coast that may keep 92L off shore as well. Hmmm....maybe keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche/SW GOM, too? A lot of shear there, though.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Wed Aug 26 2009 04:02 PM
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Re: 92L Lounge
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As of now, I still don't think the models have a good handle on Danny. GFS is more into new england (specifically east end of Long island into Southeast Mass) as of 12Z, but Danny is a odd hybrid, only slightly more tropical than subtropical, and the situation with the Upper Level Low is Complex.
I think models will shift more west later, but I'm not sure how much. Something is off with this system, and I'm still trying to figure out what that is.
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Re: 92L Lounge
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i wouldnt count out a westardly track yet either. the next two updates will tell us something. its still moving to the WNW. until we see a visible bump to the north (much like we did with bill, when it was moving NW for the longest time) i wont be convinced. i dont see that yet. not on the ir, not on the microwave, and not on the water vapor. i have to say though, this storm is moving fairly quickly.
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