MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 21 2010 10:53 AM |
Central Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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I'm putting up a forecast lounge entry for the wave in the East Caribbean (currently not an invest), because of the model runs which are sure to catch a few folks off guard.
In particular:
The model is in the lounge since I think models this far out are about worthless, but it may bring some discussion.
Other models, such as the GFS don't show this right now, although the Canadian hints at it too.
Track wise, Long range it could be Yucatan, or Gulf. More likely because of the overall pattern and model performance in the past, 93L will more likely move toward the Yucatan.
The SHIPS intensity model is fairly high on the end too. The GFS Model doesn't develop it at all yet, and the NAM suggest the Yucatan route.
Hype surely will be high with this--but It is still June, and the early intensity and track models are usually garbage.
If the models are still showing this by tomorrow night, then it may be worth something.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 21 2010 02:12 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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It an impressive blowup of thunderstorms. Its looks like they are venting on the north side. If it holds together or looks like it is further consolidating this evening then perhaps this one is one people should begin to watch a little more closely. Even though its pretty far out those intensity forecasts are disturbing...and in 72hrs on top of that. I know they dont mean much right now but they seem kinda clustered.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 21 2010 05:52 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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Thanks for ruining my day, Mike! The OTHER model plots I've seen for 93L point it toward the Yucatan. The one you post, points it at me!!!!
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Jun 21 2010 09:07 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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It appears 93L is under a developing high pressure ridge. There is a very favorable outflow situation at the upper levels.
I can not see any low level cyclonic turning which in the short run may help keep any dry air from the South American continent from getting into the tropical wave.
I can't see anything happening tonight or early tomorrow; but tomorrow night we may see a depression begin to form.
Down the road things look favorable with little shear; however, it is still June albeit late June and the likelehood of a hurricane tracking from a depression in the Central Carribean to the GOM is not really very high. Things can change quickly this time of the year and the subtropical jet could still be a factor late in the week. as what I think will be TS Alex passes West of Jamaica.
The set up looks good, but it's still June.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 21 2010 09:49 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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The Euro (EMWCF) model has backed off since earlier and now sends it much more westward and much weaker. I think this system has a better shot to develop than 92L, but I don't see it doing much.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 22 2010 01:38 AM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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The first GFDL run of 93L is out, and it seems it has initialized it a bit too far north. Most of the models are suspect in this area. I'm sticking to the more westerly motion now. I'm really interested in seeing the REcon on Wednesday, if it stays like this through tomorrow I am sure they will run the mission..
If more models move to the north, especially after recon, you have extremely warm temperatures in the gulf to feed the storm, only relying on shear at other factors to keep development out. The jet still implies further west at the time, but confidence is low.
One way out there suggestion is that it crosses or clips the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche and drifts north into the Gulf.
There is a real chance too, that if it approached the western Caribbean in good enough condition, that it could intensify somewhat rapidly there.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 22 2010 02:15 AM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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The GFDL being "too far north" is somewhat concerning to me... since it actually appears to put the system EAST of me in the long long term now. Swing it a bit south, and it paints a nice ugly bullseye on me, doesn't it?
Anything that gets into the Gulf is going to be a DISASTER, whereever it eventually ends up. I don't mean in terms of intensity, although the water is HOT out there, climatology not withstanding. The oil is what is going to make it a sticky situation (pun intended).
My gut tells me that 93L develops and follows a classic Yucatan Channel track, but once it gets into the Gulf, I don't even want to speculate at this point!
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 22 2010 02:03 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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Not much happening with 93L this morning. It is in an area where storms usually do not develop even in august/sept.
As the wave moves west i think it will be in a more favorable area for slow development. Maybe a TD in 36 hours and a weak TS in 48.
Upper level conditions still appear positive, but not much is happening at the surface. I don't see a lot of thunderstorms, in fact there appears to be less weather with this system than there was yesterday when it was just clearing the islands. I don't see any substained TS activity to indicate the wave is getting better organized.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 23 2010 01:55 AM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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Model update for tonight, GFS and GFDL are suggesting 93Lt may enter the Gulf of Mexico, the current GFDL track is disturbing (it that track would be about the worst spot to bring oil toward the coast) However, many other models are clipping the Yucatan. Link to Model animation of GFDL.
93L is very much wait and see until Thursday or Friday, but if these trends continue the more likely scenario will be in the central Gulf.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 23 2010 06:09 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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93L has been very interesting to watch.
We've had good upper level conditions, little sheer, very warm water,a nd plenty of time to see a TD develop; but without substained thunderstorm activity and a low level spin we won't see anything soon.
Right now we have a nice upper level high that can be seen on water vapor loops, with three blobs of weather under it. The three "blobs" appear to be fighting each other for energy with none winning out, yet.
I had suspected by noon today (CDT) we would have seen things getting organized and a TD form late tonite; but that's not happening. In fact all we see is an ebb and flow as the individuals areas of disturbed weather grow and weaken.
I can't see a Td form before tomorrow at the earliest and if that is to happen, we need to see better organization and that isn't happening.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 23 2010 06:26 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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The model GFDL takes it through the Yucatan and up through the central Gulf, weakening before getting close to Western Louisiana. Models look to have an initialization point that is off, however.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 23 2010 07:10 PM |
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Re: East Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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Until 93L organizes and there is a real point to factor in the models; the models are basically useless.
I believe that is why you see a model showing a cat 2 hurricane hitting La. and another showing a weak low pressure meandering in the BOC with solutions in between.
| stormtiger |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jun 24 2010 09:26 PM |
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Re: Central Caribbean Wave (93L) Forecast Lounge
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93L is near 17/82, and is looking better than it has in three days.
TS are nearing the center and pressure is down 1008mb.
Warm water, high pressure aloft, and finally some TS activity close to the low level spin. I think we'll have a TD tomorrow about this time.
One issue 93L has to deal with is the proximity to C America. If 93 moves more West than NW land might kill off the potential TD.