MikeC
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(Admin)
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Sun Aug 01 2010 12:42 PM
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Colin Forecast Lounge
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Here is the place to discuss long range models, and guesses regarding 91L.
RIght now a lot of people may feel inclined to fall back to the European model, which suggests the system moving through the northeast Caribbean and then through the Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Which is possible, but I'm not going to buy the Euro model on this system, it's a lot further east than the others and the environment is in a situation that the European model really doesn't handle quite as well.
In short, I wouldn't rely on it being close to correct right now that far out.
It does make the system worth watching for the east coast and Florida, and especially the Northeastern Caribbean.
Why am I thinking Florida right now? A possibly key may be the presence of two upper ridges, one west of Bermuda and another over the southern plain states. If a weakness exists offshore the Carolinas, that would be what drags the wave more northerly, and if it misses the northeastern Caribbean, would be the cause. What's not happening there would likely be enough to continue to pull it out to sea. What happens after that is the weakness gets plugged, which completes the ridge and generally drags it more westward, which is why those in Florida would want to watch it. Chances for a gulf impact are low currently, but not non-existent.
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge
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One of our local Mets just posted the 192 hour frame of that European model on his Facebooks page as 'something we may have to watch out for later in the week'. He loves doing that with no more comment than this quote. Looks interesting, but I don't put to much faith in a model that far out! Especially before a depression has even formed (which seems to be occurring as I type!
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge
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I have to agree with you Lamar, but as I type I think we`ll have a depression possibly in the next 24 hours or sooner. We need rain not wind, chances are we may get both if the trends continue.
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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Sun Aug 01 2010 08:38 PM
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge
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Until a center develops or RECON investigates 91L the models will continue to be somewhat unreliable. What is interesting to note is that the latest 12z ECMWF shows the system turning more westerly as it approaches the Bahamas-as in heading toward Florida. So, we'll find out soon enough where it decides to go.
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Sun Aug 01 2010 09:14 PM
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge
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I have a feeling this system is going to take up a lot of my time this week. 
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sun Aug 01 2010 10:05 PM
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge
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Remember that the purpose of this Forum is to provide a place to discuss long range models, and guesses regarding 91L
ED
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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Mon Aug 02 2010 07:02 PM
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge
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The latest round of models (18z) are trending further west, and they are to the left of the NHC track. I think the models are catching on to the fact that the fairly strong weakness in the ridge that was previously advertised is not materializing at this point. TD 4 is still moving more towards the west rather than the northwest, so I think the trend (at least in the short term) will be for the models to inch westward.
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doug
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(Weather Analyst)
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Mon Aug 02 2010 08:59 PM
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Re: 91L Forecast Lounge
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There does not seem to be anything that will pull this radically northward for a couple of days. At that time the extent of the trough along the east coast should be clear. It does seem that the strong upper high in the SE has move westward over the past 24 hours, which has deepened the trough a bit. The feature I will watch is the ULL which is somewhat removed from TD4 to the NW and its impact on the situation. It is not a vigorous ULL like we had involving Bonnie, but its presence in a day or so along the east coast of Florida will no doubt impact the trough and perhaps strengthen its effect. That is likely why the models take the system NW-NNW in a few days. Also the strength of the system will determine the degree of poleward drift; the weaker the less that will occur. I think in two days we will be able to get a firm grasp on this.
The system following looks as if it is still partially imbedded in the ITCZ.
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MikeC
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(Admin)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 10:36 AM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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The Tutt low northwest of Colin is probably going to keep the system out to sea, and I'm not seeing much at all (other than the usual internet hype machine) keeping it well to the west. Northeastern Caribbean is quickly becoming less likely, and the Carolinas only have a minor chance to see any direct impact. Bermuda is more likely, but even that may be a stretch.
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 01:42 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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Interesting that the BAMD, GFNI, and GFDN all bring the system into the Lower Bahamas. Using the latest model run at Google Earth.
Tropical Atlantic Model Runs for Google Earth
Only works with Google Earth.
Clark has a nice smaller version here:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark4latest.png
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Ed in Va
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 01:53 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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Having trouble with that link...is there somewhere else to see them?
(Try this:
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark4latest.png ~danielw)
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 03:27 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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I still think this is on the south side of where NHC track has it. It is already south of their forecast points and the forward momentum with it going as fast as it is makes it more likely. Its not going to organize much more though till it slows down. I think it stays south of the shear, barely north of the islands
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ftlaudbob
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(Storm Chaser)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 04:05 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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Looks like it will not organize further for at least a couple more days.This should make it take a more southerly track.Some of the models seem to be picking up on this.
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 05:16 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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In reference to my earlier post about the 3 models trying to forecast a track through the Bahamas.
The 3 models are basically splitting the difference between the XTRP movement and All of the other models. Strange behavior.
XTRP now skirts the Southern Coast of Hispaniola and the 3 outlier models forecast track is through the Southern Bahamas.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 05:23 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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Is it just me, or is Colin dissipating? Not much convection going on there now.
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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Almost looks like it is leaving the 'old' convection behind as new convection forms northwest and north of the center. Could it be a redevelopment of the COC?
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 06:22 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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Looks like a very small LLC is at 14.3N; 50.0W at the end of the latest Floater loop. No real convection of note.
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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 07:42 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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The 18z models are trending further to the southwest. This places the NHC's track to the east of the model consensus. At this rate, I wonder if the Southeast coast needs to keep a closer eye on the path of Colin since the models are beginning to show it curving back towards the west as it approaches Florida. Even if Colin weakens in the short term, the Caribbean could cause it to wind back up IF it continues toward the west.
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Tue Aug 03 2010 09:55 PM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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I see the circulation center at the 5 PM advisory location of 15.8N, 53.8W, but I also see a circulation with more clouds trailing at 15.0N; 50.2W. I wonder if that might regenerate at some time in the near future.
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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Wed Aug 04 2010 01:07 AM
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Re: Colin Forecast Lounge
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The BAM models from the 00z run now show the remnants of Colin heading up toward Florida before turning sharply toward the west and possibly southwest. I don't know if this really matters if Colin cannot regenerate in the future, though.
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