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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 06 2010 04:18 PM
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It is time to take 92L more serious
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Despite NHC not wrapping a circle around 92L; it is time to take this system more serious; there's banding and organization and looks pretty darn good on satellite early this afternoon. There is no shear to speak of to hinder it.
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WesnWylie
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(Weather Guru)
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Fri Aug 06 2010 04:42 PM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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I have been closely watching 92L this morning too. The Navy/NRL has put 92L back on the list. Depending on if/when it forms, we may have to keep an eye on it as the upper-level winds would carry it to the northwest once in the GOM.
Update: Looking at the latest ADDS Satellite here: http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellit...g&itype=vis, I would say this is probably at least a code orange as far as the chance for development. Definitely needs to be monitored.
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WeatherNut
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(Weather Master)
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Fri Aug 06 2010 08:11 PM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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Yes it does look like its trying to organize. Also looks like its headed for the Yucatan. The steering flow from there turns more northerly, and its not unheard of for storms to organize while crossing the Yucatan
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MichaelA
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(Weather Analyst)
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Fri Aug 06 2010 08:35 PM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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92L is looking more and more organized. It may not be anything of note until it enters the GoM after crossing the Yucatan, though.
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Storm Hunter
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(Veteran Storm Chaser)
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Fri Aug 06 2010 09:08 PM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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92L... wouldn't it follow the weakness to the NW... like the ULL that appears to be weaking in SW GOM? There appears to be no shear in the general area of the wave... which where its headed is like is an ideal location for quick development? If the storms stay tonight... i would expect them to increase before 92L gets close to the coast tmrw
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Jasonch
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(Weather Watcher)
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Fri Aug 06 2010 09:08 PM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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are the models organizing this to a storm and is it headed for the northern gulf coast. The NHC isn't saying anything other than it is going to move onshore around belize.
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Ed Dunham
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(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
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Sat Aug 07 2010 12:42 AM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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92L is not likely to amount to much and it is indeed heading for Belize. As I mentioned in an earlier post in another thread, you can see for yourself what the models might be doing with a particular system by using the links at the very bottom of the Main Page, however, until the system shows some development, take the model output with a grain of salt. It has no chance of hitting the northern Gulf coast. Here is a link to the steering currents - note the blocking anticyclone over central Texas.
UW SSEC Steering Currents
The NHC projection seems rather sound to me.
ED
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berrywr
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(Weather Analyst)
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Sat Aug 07 2010 06:31 PM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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Ed, you're annoying...you had to make me look at charts today. Okay, it's on land, no biggie and its likely to pay MX a 2nd visit. Two pesty ULL not reflected at the surface; one in the BOC, the other in the Bahamas and it isn't reflected at 850 mbs. That leaves a ridge axis pinched in the middle and I bow humbly to King Ed; he's right. Now, it's only a threat if the ULL doesn't move towards TX fast enough as progged; problem is, shear. Those pesky ULLs!
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danielw
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(Moderator)
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Sat Aug 07 2010 09:53 PM
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Re: It is time to take 92L more serious
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King Ed, that's good!
I looked at the Texas ULL earlier today and it appeared to be nearly stationary. VAD wind profiles are indicating winds from the SSE up to 17 knots from the surface to 9,000 feet at Brownsville.
Leading edge of the ULL is nearly feet dry at/ over Brownsville.
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