| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 12 2010 06:48 PM |
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Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development
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Okay...we know it's been a bust up to now...TUTT and TUTT lows everywhere again this year and like last year more fizzle than bang. Took a look at models and discussions and a cold front...a dry front for we southerners is expected to drop in for the weekend and set up either along the GOM coast or slightly south where both the GFS and ECMWF have a low expected to develop along the front. Current thinking is the GFS is way overblown and the ECMWF has a weak low which mets favor. There is considerable dry Saharan air affecting a good chunk of the Atlantic Ocean and a deep upper low over the Central Atlantic with extending trough southwest in a curve all the way back through the Caribbean and stops near Yucatan...Shear analysis - 30 to 40 knot gradient winds from the GOM extending NE along the Atlantic coast; upper ridge over the Eastern US.
Patience..Patience...Patience...
| lonelymike |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 12 2010 09:29 PM |
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Re: Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development
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Dr, Jeff Masters has a good discussion on his blog at the Weather Underground talking about the slow start to the season. Basically said verticak instability is low in the Atlantic Basin. Until the instability increases it will continue to be a slow season.
| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2010 04:22 PM |
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Re: Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development
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I think by this coming up Monday (or possibly Sunday?) there will be two areas to watch for development. The first is the possible redevelopment of TD 5 as it re-curves back into the Gulf of Mexico. If it does manage to get back into the gulf as the models show, it appears that it would have a limited/hard time to get going due to the proximity to land. Just as I am typing this, the 12z GFS shows the remnants flaring up into a very strong tropical storm or hurricane heading into SE Texas by Wednesday morning, so you never know.
The second area that I think will be worth watching is the area in the SW Caribbean. The NAM hints @ development of this area in the next 3 or 4 days along with NOGAPS. This would be another Yucatan-type system if it were to develop. With all this said, I have a feeling that the tropical activity will pick up this next week through the end of August.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 14 2010 09:02 PM |
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Re: Week of 15 Aug 2010 - New Development
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 17 2010 - 12Z SAT AUG 21 2010
(excerpt of Discussion~danielw)
WELL EASTWARD A INCREASING FAVORABLE MJO/VELOCITY POTENTIAL
ANOMALIES AND ACTUAL MODEL RUNS OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF ARE SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OF CAPE VERDE/EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS MID TO
LATE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. GOOD GFS ENS AGREEMENT.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY RIGHT ON TIME.
August 14,2010 at 2000Z
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