| WesnWylie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 20 2010 12:09 PM |
Danielle Forecast Lounge
|
UPDATE: Tropical Storm Danielle as of 22/21Z.
Well, the wave in the Eastern Atlantic is being tracked now as 95L. Here is the model runs: https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_95.gif. I still have a feeling that it will head out to sea rather than get close to the coast, just my own opinion.
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Aug 20 2010 03:30 PM |
|
Danielle Forecast Lounge
|
This morning the system in the far eastern Atlantic near 11N 26W was designated as Invest 95L with winds of 25kts and pressure at 1008MB. Long range models currently move the system west then northwest and intensify it.
This lounge is for making your best guess at what this system may do, either using the models or any other method.
Its worth noting that a pre-Invest system is located about 500 miles west of 95L off the African coast near 12.2N 17.5W at 20/14Z. This system, designated PGI33L until it becomes an Invest, actually has better structure than 95L does at the moment. The ECMWF develops both systems - which, if it happens, could make for some interesting motion dynamics (can you spell Fujiwhara?) in the Basin. It certainly will be interesting to see how this area evolves over the next few days.
Cheers,
ED
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 21 2010 09:36 PM |
|
TD6 Forecast Lounge
|
Invest 95L in the far eastern Atlantic was upgraded to a Tropical Depression at 21/21Z. The system is expected to intensify and move generally northwestward for the next few days.
Use this thread for your long range track and intensity discussions.
ED
| Joeyfl |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 22 2010 12:54 AM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Depression Six Forms in East Atlantic
|
Taking a close look at the model data 18z tonight looks as though it is really going to be about timing when it comes to when TD6 soon to be Danielle makes the turn northward. Still plenty of time to watch this system but some of the models Bam's and HWRF are bending it back westward late in the period 96-120 hours. Looks as though the trough/low developing on the east coast of of the U.S 48-72 hours will lift northeast with high pressure building back in linking back up with the Azores high. GFS/GFDL still taking this northwestward but slower after 120-144 hours as high builds back in to the north. The HWRF has a weaker system, maybe why its not being pulled more poleward? 18z NOGAPS also on the left side of guidance envelope. Of coarse its much to soon to say its going to be a for sure fish spinner or U.S threat, will know more for sure over the up coming week as things begin to evolve.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Aug 22 2010 09:32 PM |
|
Tropical Storm Danielle Forecast Lounge
|
TD6, although still under some easterly shear, has managed to intensify to minimal tropical storm strength based on satellite analysis and has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Danielle.
ED
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 12:23 AM |
|
Re: Danielle Forecast Lounge
|
The 18Z GFS (And Nogaps) have Danielle plowing into the ridge and getting near Cape Cod. Odds don't favor this happening, but the lounge should be aware of it. If this persists, other models pick up on it, and the GFS continues this trend. Then things could change.
18z GFS (Danielle near Cape Cod)
NOGAPS link
Unless this trend continues, talking about it on the front would be more hype than anything. (A quirky run with a feast for wishcasters) But wanted to mention it here for the record.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 25 2010 10:36 AM |
|
Re: Danielle Forecast Lounge
|
Models have shifted back to the east mostly, and the Euro quite a bit to the east, well missing Bermuda to the east. These easterly models seem more likely.